tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post7541967794448053480..comments2024-03-26T06:17:49.527-07:00Comments on Had Enough Therapy?: France: The Fire Next TimeStuart Schneidermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12784043736879991769noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post-70694118896185190912017-05-08T10:20:30.117-07:002017-05-08T10:20:30.117-07:00Sam,
Very dangerous creatures Indeed! But for Fran...Sam,<br />Very dangerous creatures Indeed! But for France there is a glimmer of hope:<br />https://youtu.be/FEFfISdA8LQJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13642228725661059539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post-35081221977617170892017-05-08T08:52:11.173-07:002017-05-08T08:52:11.173-07:00I didn't know that there were cougars in Franc...I didn't know that there were cougars in France.Sam L.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00996809377798862214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post-22177070636420886532017-05-08T05:55:23.229-07:002017-05-08T05:55:23.229-07:00Certainly winning is a higher political liability ...Certainly winning is a higher political liability than losing. If you lose, even by a 32 point landslide, like Le Pen did, she can spend her future being a critic of everything the government does, and keep hoping for the worst, so next time you'll have more ammo to hit the establishment over the head with.<br /><br />Last week I predicted a 32-34% vote could be considered a victory for LePen, since her dad never made it over 20% in his historic defeat.<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002<br />---<br />ROUND 2<br />Jacques Chirac 25,537,956 82.2%<br />Jean-Marie Le Pen 5,525,032, 17.8%<br />Total 31,062,988<br />Spoilt and null votes 1,769,307 5.39%<br />ROUND 1<br />Jacques Chirac 5,665,855 19.88%<br />Jean-Marie Le Pen 4,804,713 16.86%<br />...<br />TOTAL 28,498,471<br />Spoilt and null votes 997,262 3.38%<br />---<br /><br />There are some interesting numbers in 2017, although the totals will likely change a little.<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017<br />---<br />ROUND 2<br />Emmanuel Macron 20,753,798 66.10%<br />Marine Le Pen 10,644,118 33.90%<br />Total 31,397,916<br />Blank and null ballots 4,069,256 11.47%<br />ROUND 1<br />Emmanuel Macron 8,656,346 24.01%<br />Marine Le Pen 7,678,491 21.30%<br />...<br />TOTAL 36,054,394<br />Blank and null ballots 949,334 2.57%<br />---<br /><br />The first observation is that round 2 in 2002 had 3 million MORE votes than round 1, so that shows how much Jean-Marie Le Pen was disliked, while in 2017 there were 4 million LESS votes in 2017, and its always fair to say nonvotes support the underdog candidate, i.e. that 4 million people were NOT afraid Marine Le Pen would win. So that alone is a shift of 7+ million and Jacques Chirac also got 5 million more votes in 2002 than Emmanuel Macron got in 2017.<br /><br />So no one can claim he's the exciting centrist candidate trying to bring people together. He's been given chance, and if France is more governable than the U.S. is these day, perhaps he'll make good.<br /><br />I understand people on reading this blog see Muslim immigration as the highest threat to the western world, and if Muslims in France actually could behave themselves, anti-immigration candidates like Le Pen might have less leverage to work with on fearful neighbors.<br /><br />Hopefully Le Pen's 34% showing will be a sign not that 34% are racists who wish to kick out all the Muslims, but a sign that there is concern over Muslim integration that needs attention.<br /><br />And it does seem like "public opinion" can easily shift against immigrants, so the next election could easily become a show down on that one issue, and a candidate like Le Pen may continue rising even to the top in a top-2 runoff process.<br /><br />It is also interesting to consider France's elections are much more democratic, at least allowing a national popular vote, and majority winner. Clinton's 48% wasn't a majority, and Trump's 46% certainly wasn't. We can wonder who would have made a top-2 "open primary" in the U.S. The republicans certainly would have been less fearful of Trump as spoiler, and wouldn't care if he ran as an independent. And Sanders also would be free to run third party. <br /><br />Top-2 are a bit of a crap shoot, but when everyone has a chance, we might have Sanders and Trump in the final two, and then we'd really see if a Billionaire has majority support over a Socialist.<br /><br />It is still strange how Trump promised health care for all, and yet passively allows the republicans to pass bills and allows the Media to call it TrumpCare when he really has no idea what's in it, and just trusts the garbage he's told.<br /><br />Anyway, we don't have President Sanders, and we have to depend on man-boy wonder Trump and his daughter-wife to be our populist. And I'm very willing to bet on France's Macron success over Trump.<br />Ares Olympushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09726811306826601686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post-62010875426811627572017-05-08T05:47:09.475-07:002017-05-08T05:47:09.475-07:00I think this captures it...
https://1.bp.blogspot...I think this captures it...<br /><br />https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-i6wH5qpz5l8/WQ_B_PLr68I/AAAAAAAAs-c/RyJXjZ4RV8QYH0oepuxwTDX5G6TsjcFVQCLcB/s1600/%2BMac.png.jpgtrigger warninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06310637474428322994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8078379512095504946.post-19064801535161716832017-05-08T05:16:08.010-07:002017-05-08T05:16:08.010-07:00All of that is very right. Consider this it took e...All of that is very right. Consider this it took everything the elites had to get this election result, a very young and attractive figurehead. Adam Smith did say there was a lot of ruin in country, but this time the end may have been reached. I don't like being Mr Doom and Gloom, but I think this assures great conflict and privation in the future.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13642228725661059539noreply@blogger.com