Republicans have more than a few reasons to be confused.
They can begin to solve their political problems by understanding the greatest political paradox of our time.
The American people have elected a president who supposedly
represents the best interests of hard working middle class Americans. Yet, this
group that has suffered the most under Obama’s policies.
In addition, Joel Kotkin points out, even though those who voted for
Obama thought that they were voting against the big money interests of Wall
Street, the administration and the Federal Reserve are managing the financial system to favor Wall Street at the expense of Main Street.
Perhaps the Lord will forgive Americans for not knowing what they
are doing, but it is difficult for a politician to explain to vast numbers of
citizens that they have been duped.
In a recent column, Kotkin argued that the real maestro of
the supposed economic recovery is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben
Bernanke. Obama’s progressive rhetoric is, Kotkin says, Bernanke’s “beard.”
Bernanke’s policies have been a boon for the largest financial institutions, but they have hurt smaller community banks and small
businesses.
In Kotkin’s words:
To many
presidential idolaters, this era will be known as the Age of Obama. But, in reality, we live in what may
best be called the Age of Bernanke. Essentially, Obamaism increasingly serves
as a front for the big-money interests who benefit from the Federal Reserve's
largesse and interest rate policies; progressive rhetoric serves as the beard
for royalist results.
Overall,
the impacts of ultralow interest rate, cash-machine policies of Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke trump everything else. The presidential stimulus was, at best,
modestly effectively, and certainly did little to turn around the
fortunes of most Americans or spark much economic growth. Unemployment remains stuck at
around 8 percent and 8.5 million workers have exited the labor force.
But the
Bernanke policies have succeeded in reshaping the economic landscape in ways
that, while good for the plutocracy and Wall Street, are not particularly
positive for the vast majority of Americans.
Who has lost out in the Obama-Bernanke Era? The poor,
minorities, small business, the middle class and the young. They have lost
jobs, opportunities and wealth. Did they vote for Obama because they
were afraid that Mitt Romney would fire Ben Bernanke?
For small business the outlook is bleak. Kotkin explains:
With
demand and growth still weak, small business enters the new year with among the
lowest expectations of any large economic sector. As Gallup points out, one in five small companies expects
to lower its employee count, one in three expect to decrease capital spending
and almost as many expect to be in more severe cash-flow troubles by the end of
the year.
This
decline of small-business sentiment constitutes arguably the biggest reason for
our poor job-creation numbers. If small business had come out of the recession
maintaining just the rate of start-ups generated in 2007, notes McKinsey, the U.S. economy would today have almost 2.5
million more jobs than it does.
Big banks can afford to comply with the blizzard of new
regulations coming out of Washington. Small
community banks, the ones that lend to small local businesses, are suffering the
most under the new regime.
Kotkin writes:
One
source for this decline lies in the difficulties faced by smaller community banks, which tend to be
those most likely to lend to entrepreneurial firms. Jeff Ball, chairman-elect
of the California Bankers Association and founder of Whittier-based Friendly
Hills Bank, suggests the Fed's policies – as well as growing regulatory
policies – has led to an unprecedented concentration of financial assets in the
hands of a few large "too big to fail banks" while the number of
smaller community banks has been shrinking.
"Everywhere
you turn there's a 'gotcha' from the regulators," Ball notes. "The
big banks can deal with the regulations far more easily than the community
banks. And because some banks are perceived as 'too big to fail,' there's
easier access to credit, and they are perceived to be better to invest
in."
Who has gotten rich off the new policies? The big banks and
the major financial institutions. Remember all of those Occupy Wall Street
protesters; they should have been demonstrating at the
White House and the Federal Reserve. If they had a clue, they would have been.
Under the Bernanke-Obama regime Wall Street has done just
fine, thank you:
The
very people who were supposed to be the bĂȘte noires of the age of Obama: the large financial
institutions. In 2013, the top four banks
controlled more than 40 percent of the credit markets in the top 10
states, up by 10 percent from 2009 and roughly twice their share in 2000. At
the same time, since the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial regulations, there
are some 330 fewer small banks. Under the current regime, the oligopolization
of the credit markets will continue apace, as much, or even more, than if Mitt
Romney had won the presidency.
Wall Street has enjoyed the new regime:
Unlike
smaller firms, or the middle class, the big financial institutions have feasted
like pigs at the trough, with the six largest banks borrowing almost
a half-trillion dollars from Uncle Ben Bernanke's printing press. While
millions of Americans have lost homes and much of their net worth, there has been not a single
high-level prosecution by the Obama administration of the grandees of
the very financial giants at the heart of the mass misery.
Who else has gotten rich off of Obama-Bernanke? Why, federal
government employees. As long as Bernanke keeps interest rates low, the federal
government’s borrowing costs remain unnaturally low. That frees up more money
to pay government employees higher salaries.
Kotkin is reminded of the last days of the Roman Empire:
All
this is reminiscent of something out of the declining days of the Roman Empire.
The masses get bread (food stamps) and circuses, with virtually all of
Hollywood and much of the media ready to perform on cue. The majority, losers
in the Bernanke economy, lack the will and, maybe, the attention span to
realize what is happening to them.
"The
Roman people are dying and laughing," the fifth-century Christian writer
Salvian wrote. Like America today, entertainment-mad Rome suffered from a
declining middle class, mass poverty and domination by a few wealthy
patricians, propped up by a compliant government. Unless Americans of both left
and right wake up to reality, our civilization could suffer a similar
inexorable decline in the Age or Bernanke.
Let’s keep in mind, Joel Kotkin is a Democrat.
Stuart, I don't know if you've read the book "The Forgotten Man" by Amity Schlaes. If you have not, you must. It's a markets-based critique of the Great Depression. An excellent read, very accessible. One of her main points is that New Deal policies made the Depression last longer, and that's because of the incessant political, regulatory and legal meddling in the economy. It was intrusive and pervasive, leaving capital on the sidelines because there was no visibility about where resources could be effectively allocated. Washington was a substantial part of the problem because there was all this activity, with no end. This activity was championed at all levels by idealists who thought they were acting in the public interest, but were deaf and blind to the real impact on private sector behavior. For the first time, it elevated the government as a powerful actor in the economy in its own right, challenging the private sector for power and influence. Government was no longer a referee for all, but an interest of its own, targeted at specific constituencies for benefit or ill. It subjectively picked winners and losers, with no mind to consequence. This was new in U.S. politics. It stole hope from the "Forgotten Man," the citizen who sought to get by without relief, who in the end got screwed for an entire decade.
ReplyDeleteSound familiar?
I fear we are living through this all again. The impact of government activity is very elusive an complex, because the interference is running in the background. Obama is a vindictive Chicago thug, so business leaders are wary to voice a position. Instead of investing in what's next, industry silently sits on a huge cash hoard (held mostly offshore), waiting to see how things pan out, reducing our economic future to a big game of chicken.
The other piece few are talking about is how the law has ceased to be a tool of a stable, civil society and is now becoming a tool of megalomaniacs and plutocrats. Lawyers supposedly venerate the law, but this emerging corruption of the law will increasingly erode respect for the law. It's become a tool of the clever interests rather than a structure for a stable, functioning society. Laws, regulations and rules have become so Byzantine in their complexity and they are arbitrarily applied. That's why small banks and businesses are screwed... they can't dedicate resources to an army of lawyers like Citi and GE can.
Kotkin sees what I wish more journalists would: an insular, decadent Washington. It's out of control, and is consuming more and more of our national output. At the head of it is Obama, an elitist and inexperienced leader who is fundamentally dishonest about his operating philosophy. It doesn't work, and never has.
Tip
Thanks, Tip. I have read Amity Shlaes. It is a powerful antidote to the commonly held myth about the New Deal. Since BHO seems to have modeled his policies on the New Deal, mistakenly assuming that it worked, it is relevant.
ReplyDeleteI admire Kotkin because he is a Democrat with intellectual integrity. So many political commentators are, as you say, completely dishonest. No wonder nothing gets done.
I actually like it when nothing gets done. It's when things get done by these self-proclaimed polymaths in Washington that things go awry. No ones freedom is safe when Congress is in session, or with any of the other shenanigans that pass for policy-making in the District of Columbia, given all the executive orders and unchecked bureaucratic initiatives.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad to hear you've read Schlaes' work. Her timing with that book was amazing.
You know my feelings about the Fourth Estate and its failure to function. Again, all I ask is that journalists be skeptics about everyone and everything. Show some curiosity, for goodness sake! It is embarrassing to watch them in their vainglorious sanctimony.
Tip