Is China Losing Face?

We have been following the moves on the North Korean diplomatic chessboard, so we feel obliged to look at the current state of the game.

You might recall that the Chinese government, for having committed itself to tamp down its rebarbative protégé, has now been exposed as a weak player. Of course, the North Koreans do not want to look at though they are being pushed around. That would cause them to lose face. The Chinese do not want to look as though they are being pushed around by the Americans. That would cause them to lose face. And yet, the Chinese also want to exercise leadership. It would cause them to save face.

By now, however, the Chinese have backed themselves into a corner. The Trump administration has been complimenting them on their honest efforts... which is a nice way of saying that they have failed but that we respect them enough not to rub their faces in it.

Now, Andrew Browne offers an extensive news analysis where he exposes China’s problem.

He does not discuss it in terms of face saving, but the term is certainly apposite:

China faces a moment of truth in its own backyard on whether it is ready to assume greater global leadership.

So far, writes John H. Maurer, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, “Beijing is flunking the test.”

In Beijing’s view, the current crisis was largely created by U.S. belligerence, and thus the onus is primarily on Washington to fix it, with China acting as facilitator.

The Trump administration has handled the situation skillfully up to now:

President Donald Trump has tweeted that while he appreciates the attempt by his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to help “it has not worked out.” China insists it has made “relentless efforts” to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula.

The Chinese government is none too happy for having been backed into a corner:

An irritated China on Tuesday hit back at U.S. pressure to do more. “The ‘China responsibility theory’ on the peninsula nuclear issue can stop,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

Yet China is Pyongyang’s enabler: Up to 90% of North Korea’s foreign trade runs through its neighbor. And commerce is surging; Pyongyang is a bustling capital.

Beijing appears to believe that living with a nuclear North Korea is preferable to the alternatives: the collapse of its socialist ally spilling refugees into its industrial heartland and bringing U.S. troops to its border.

Translation: the Chinese know that they have a problem. They do not know how they are going to solve it. Trump has called their bluff and they are about to lose a considerable amount of diplomatic respect around the world:

One thing is clear, however: China’s passivity doesn’t jibe with its quest for international respect as a great power capable of solving big problems.

Confucius said that shame is a good thing because it motivates us to act. We will see how it works out in East Asia.

The question now is whether China will come to see that its rogue ally imperils everything—its past victories against poverty, its dreams of future wealth and power. And whether that will inspire it to lead.

One notes, without an ounce of chagrin, that China had gained considerable status and prestige during the Obama years. It took over and armed islands in the South China Sea… without hearing the least discouraging word from the Obama White House. It has been playing a double game on North Korea... saying one thing and doing another. By now, however, the jig seems to be up. Just as Vladimir Putin is struggling to adjust to the presence of a new sheriff, so do is Chinese president Xi Jinping.