In the Matter of Christine Ford vs. Brett Kavanaugh

In the matter of Christine Ford against Brett Kavanaugh, David French offers a thoroughly sober assessment of Ford’s claims. Surely, it feels like a late hit. It feels like something that was conjured up at the last minute to delay the Kavanaugh nomination.

French, a trial lawyer, examines the evidence. He begins by examining the evidence against other political figures, beginning with Bill Clinton:

Given the totality of the evidence, I believe it is more likely than not that Bill Clinton committed rape and sexual harassment. I believe it is more likely than not that Donald Trump has committed sexual assault. I believe it is more likely than not that Roy Moore engaged in sexual misconduct with underage girls. But the evidence against Kavanaugh falls far short of the evidence arrayed against each of these men. So far at least it falls far short of the evidence against virtually any other politician or celebrity who has faced consequences during this #MeToo moment.

One notes that when Bill Clinton was accused of rape on national television, Sen. Feinstein and her minions had nothing to say. Precious few feminists were appalled by the accusation-- Patricia Ireland of NOW being one of the exceptions.

Since the events in question happened nearly 35 years ago, we do not want to trust mere memory. As happens in most cases, we prefer what French calls “contemporary corroboration” to memory.

One understands that people choose to do what they choose to do. One does not want to speculate about the mind of a fifteen year old girl who has undergone a terrifying assault. And yet, do you consider it plausible that she told no one? Was she so terrified that her parents would find out about her drinking that she did not even confide in a close girlfriend? If she came home from a party in a state of extreme distress, do you imagine that her parents simply ignored her anguish and did not probe for answers?

In Ford’s case there was no corroboration:

According to the Washington Post, “Ford said she told no one of the incident in any detail until 2012, when she was in couples therapy with her husband.”

Time is not memory’s friend.

That’s almost three decades of silence — three decades when memories can grow cloudy and recollections can change.

And, of course, Ford brought up the incident in couples counseling, when it could serve a purpose. Was her marriage failing? Were she and her husband headed for divorce? Had their sex life declined? Was she trying to elicit sympathy from her husband and her therapist?

Or, was she offering the kind of rationalization that makes sense to certain narrative-loving therapists. That is, perhaps she was explaining that her sex drive had gone dormant because of the aftereffects of a trauma. For all we know, the situation was more complex. We do not know anything about the way her or her husband’s sex drive played out in their marriage. And we do not know the role that medication or hormones might have played.

In short, we know that she introduced the story to serve a purpose. Might this have led to a misremembering of what happened? We do not know. And we must allow for the fact that Ford believes completely that her memory is accurate... even though it is not accurate.

Keep in mind that there is such a thing as false memory syndrome. This, via Wikipedia:

False memory syndrome (FMS) describes a condition in which a person's identity and relationships are affected by memories that are factually incorrect but that they strongly believe.[1]Peter J. Freyd originated the term,[2] which the False Memory Syndrome Foundation (FMSF) subsequently popularized. The term is not recognized as a psychiatric illness[3] in any of the medical manuals, such as the ICD-10[4] or the DSM-5;[5] however, the principle that memories can be altered by outside influences is overwhelmingly accepted by scientists.

French adds that when Ford told a therapist about the incident she changed a detail. She said that four boys were involved, not the two that she later named. Now, Ford asserts that the therapist made a mistake in taking notes. Given that the therapist was taking real time notes, how likely is it that she would have mistaken two for four.

But even the allegedly corroborating notes of the therapist raise a separate problem. They actually contradict her story on a key detail. According to the Post, “The notes say four boys were involved, a discrepancy that Ford says was an error on the therapist’s part. Ford said there were four boys at the party but only two in the room.” Nor do the notes mention Kavanaugh’s name, even though her husband says Ford named Kavanaugh in the sessions.

Those are important discrepancies, and if six years ago she told the therapist four men and says two men now, that suggests that her memory of the event may be suspect.

Naturally, French continues, we want to find out whether any of the other attendees at the party have any recollection about what happened. The other man who is accused, named Mark Judge, has vigorously denied that any of it happened:

Yet given all the years that have passed, would it be possible to find anyone who remembers being at that party? Would they remember any details at all? If someone saw Kavanaugh stumbling drunk at the party, that would obviously bolster Ford’s account. If another attendee says, “He was totally sober and with me the whole time,” that helps Kavanaugh. But the odds of getting details that precise are long indeed, and there is always a chance that a motivated classmate might lie — for either person.

French concludes with an important pont. Ford's allegation seems to stand alone. In many of the high profile #MeToo cases, once the perpetrator is accused many other women come forth to report sexual harassment. Whether it was Bill Clinton, Harvey Weinstein, Matt Lauer or Les Moonves, sexual predators do not just do it one time. They manifest a pattern of behavior.

Finally, there are no other allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh. If there’s one thing we’ve seen time and again, it’s that one allegation often triggers a cascade of additional claims. There seem to be precious few men who engage in serious sexual misconduct just once. If this was the kind of behavior that Kavanaugh engaged in, then look for more people to come forward. If no one does, however, we’re left with a sole claim, made by an opposing partisan (Ford is an outspoken progressive), that Kavanaugh strenuously denies, that lacks any contemporaneous corroboration, and that is contradicted in material respects by her therapist’s own notes.

A sole claim, by a partisan, lacking contemporaneous corroboration… should not be allowed to destroy a man’s life.