Misinformed about Misinformation

You read it here first. It just goes to show how valuable my musings are. The subject at issue is whether, as I put it a few weeks ago, misinformation kills. Since our enfeebled president says that it does, the chances are good that it does not.

By my reasoning, if people are not getting vaccinated in sufficient numbers, this is not happening because someone somewhere is trafficking in misinformation.

Besides, since the titans of high tech have been scrupulously canceling any information that does not jive with their opinions, one might as well conclude that people are not getting vaccinated in sufficient numbers because they dislike being manipulated by the titans of high tech.

Anyway, Stanford’s Robert Kaplan reports in the Wall Street Journal that research has shown that misinformation is not preventing people from getting the vaccine. In truth, misinformation or better information that has been approved by high tech has not changed very many people’s minds:

The idea that recent, deliberate misinformation campaigns created hesitancy to the Covid-19 vaccine appears itself to be misinformation.

Over the past year the Stanford Clinical Excellence Research Center has asked representative samples of the U.S. population about the likelihood they would accept vaccines. A poll completed in August 2020 showed that about 20% of the population reported they were very unlikely to take a vaccine even if the evidence suggested it was safe and effective. Another 15% said they were unlikely to take it. Those two categories add up to approximately the percentage of adults yet to get a first dose a year later.

Without even knowing there would be a vaccine, more than a third of the population told us they were not planning to accept it.

But then, late last year, the news media was flooded with stories about the wonders of the covid-19 vaccines. They were widely touted as the ultimate cure for the pandemic. Precious little contrary information was available.

Did people change their minds? Not at all. 

Kaplan reports:

The study was repeated in late December 2020 after highly impressive results from clinical trials led the Food and Drug Administration to give emergency-use authorization for two vaccines. News cycles prior to our December survey were dominated by stories on the potential for vaccines. Still, about 35% said they were unlikely or very unlikely to take the vaccine. The numbers are almost identical to those seen in August when vaccine potential had not received public scrutiny.

The Stanford finding that 20% would be very unlikely to take the vaccine is consistent with a variety of other studies. Monthly polls by the Kaiser Family Foundation show the percentage saying they will definitely not take the vaccine or take it only if required has held steady at around 20%.

To be fair, the mainstream media and the social media became propaganda organs of anti-Trumpism during the Trump administration. One suspects that they lost their credibility, to the point where many people refuse to believe anything they say.

Our studies also looked at demographic factors related to self-reported vaccine hesitancy. Older adults, women, Asian-Americans, and college graduates were more likely to say they would take the vaccine, while African-American and Hispanic respondents were more hesitant. And even before it was known if a vaccine would ever be available, Biden supporters were significantly more likely than Trump followers to say they would get the shot.

Of course, this is barely coherent. If members of minority groups were less likely to take the vaccine, how did it happen that Biden supporters, which included a great majority of minority group members, were more likely to take the shot?

Besides, and it is almost unnecessary to make the point, but Biden and Harris both insisted that they would hesitate to take the vaccine if it had been provided during the Trump administration. Somehow no one cares about that piece of rank misinformation.

That point aside, most people had already made up their minds before the vaccine was approved. They did not change their minds.

We also looked at the likelihood people would take the vaccine under a variety of hypothetical circumstances. To our surprise, information on the expected side effects and benefits had only small effects. All told, many people made up their minds long before vaccines were available.

The internet is awash with misinformation about the vaccines. But data distortion seems to have little effect on vaccine uptake. Well over a year ago, 35% told us they wouldn’t take the vaccine, and they have kept their word. The recent increase in vaccine uptake appears to be among people who initially said they would “wait and see.”

In politics, voters choose their loyalties early. After they do, expensive and exhausting campaigns affect few voters. Vaccine acceptance may similarly be determined by the groups we align with rather than evidence—or false information—about the vaccine itself.

Apparently, those media tycoons, from the mainstream media to social media, are off on a power trip. They believe that they have taken control of the American mind, that they have monopolized its thought patterns and can manipulate its beliefs. 

Of course, the laws of behavioral economics tell us that this manipulation will only continue until people understand that they are being manipulated. At that point they will make it a point of pride to resist, to refuse to do what they are being told to do, regardless of the consequences.