The Complexity of It All

From Gerard Baker, in the Wall Street Journal, a cogent and balanced analysis of the current stakes, not to say challenge, in Ukraine. At the least, he grasps the complexity of the situation and does not reduce it to talking points:

This lesson emphasizes the peril for all of us. We watch in awe the bravery of the Ukrainian people in resisting Russian aggression. But the stakes for Mr. Putin are so high that they create a terrifying paradox of Russian weakness: The longer the fight goes on, the greater his incentive to escalate. The fear of full nuclear war may be overdone, but we are already a couple of rungs up the ladder that leads to it.

For the West, a defining moment will come in the next few weeks. We are tempted to push harder in Ukraine not only out of empathy with the innocents suffering there, but also by the rising prospect of defeat for Russia and the fall of the regime. Yet every further step up the ladder—the supply of money, weapons and fighter jets, even stopping well short of the no-fly zone some have called for—raises the risk that Mr. Putin intensifies or widens the conflict to avert his own fall.

We are then in the early stages of a process that will require an almost preternatural level of sophistication in our diplomatic approach.

Good luck with that.