Twas the day before Thanksgiving and things were not looking too good in Ukraine. They were not looking too good for the Ukrainians, whose infrastructure was being systematically destroyed-- thus heralding a cold, dark winter-- and they were not looking too good for the Russians, whose easy fight had become a long winter slog.
Those who championed liberal democracy happily declared that we had prevailed. Those who preferred autocratic strong men remarked that Putin was sure to prevail. In the meantime Russia was aligning itself with Iran and China, the better to create a new non-dollar based world order.
The latter is the most important, so no one is discussing it.
Winter could change everything. Or at least greatly intensify the fighting on both sides. Winter for the Russians and Ukrainians is both a blessing and a curse. If the Russian generals have positioned themselves to take advantage of the winter Russia could expand this invasion dramatically. Conversely if Ukraine uses the winter to their advantage they could kill or injure tens of thousands of Russian troops, at great loss to themselves too. The difference is that taking losses defending your homeland is heroic and builds morale while taking losses miles from your homeland for no good reason destroys morale. Time will tell. Russia may take the safe choice and do a little rope-a-dope and just lob missiles and artillery into Ukraine thus keeping their casualties low. The problem with that is while they will destroy property and kill civilians it will only encourage the Ukraine forces to seek out tactical wins. Russia is losing a lot of equipment and men in this fight and it makes them look weak. Russia is at a crossroad and Winter is their time to choose. A wise leader would declare victory and take what they got and make peace. But, while the Russians are wiley I'm not sure that they are wise. This may be the Winter of their discontent.
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