President Xi Goes to Saudi Arabia

When it comes to conventional foreign policy wisdom, the two American parties tend to be on the same page. Yesterday, Time Magazine anointed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky person of the year, for having stood down the Russian bear and for having presided over the destruction of his country. Shouldn’t that have been a dubious achievement award?

At the same, you cannot open the papers without seeing a story about how the Chinese people, great lovers of liberal democracy, are in open revolt against their leader, President Xi Jinping. Our foreign policy gurus declare that Xi’s days are numbered and that freedom is about to overtake the Middle Kingdom.

And then there is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammed bin Salmon, who murdered a journalist and had his body chopped into pieces. The Biden administration had chosen not to make too much of an issue over it, because the consequences of breaking up a relationship between America and Saudi Arabia over a human rights violation was not in our best interest.

When you are playing great powers RealPolitik, sometimes it is better to sustain the relationship than to protest in vain. Or better, to assert the value of your lofty ideals when such assertions threaten international trade and commerce. Apparently, the tough-on-China crowd has not learned this lesson.

Alas, but such is political life.

Anyway, MBS is not exactly on the ropes. And neither is Xi Jinping. In fact they are meeting today in Riyadh to sign a new series of commercial ties. We talk tough about the human rights abuses each has committed. And this is the outcome.

Karen Elliott House offers some sane analysis in the Wall Street Journal this morning. She opens thusly:

At first glance, the president of China and the Saudi crown prince appear to have little in common beyond their shared conviction that America is in decline. But a closer look reveals numerous similarities, especially their assertive determination to play a dominant role in world affairs.

I would shift the emphasis slightly. These leaders see an America in decline and they are looking to play a more dominant role-- but also to protect their own commercial interests. Let's not forget the fact that the Biden administration, in the name of a free Ukraine, chose to weaponize the dollar. Perhaps these leaders are trying to establish an alternative.

The trip enhances the prestige of both leaders:

The pomp and ceremony will boost Mr. Xi’s stature back home, where he faces protests over Covid lockdowns, a stagnant economy and his assumption of an unprecedented third term as China’s leader. MBS similarly benefited from Mr. Xi’s warm welcome in Beijing in 2019 on the heels of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. An aide to the crown prince says of that visit, “MBS managed Trump, but he meshed with Xi.”

And, of course, when MBS traveled to China he did not utter a word about our own cause celebre, the Uyghurs.

While we attack their national pride, these nations will go to great lengths to defend it:

Both leaders see themselves as symbols of proud and ancient civilizations that are superior to the West. They are deeply offended by Washington’s assertion that individual liberty and human rights are universal. Mr. Xi can be confident he’ll hear nothing during this visit about China’s treatment of its Uyghur population, which the U.S. has labeled genocide. Nor will Mr. Xi lecture MBS on the war in Yemen.

Jamal Khasshoggi notwithstanding, MBS is doing very well indeed.

House explains:

For MBS, everything looks rosy now. World leaders are eager to meet with him again. The Saudi economy is among the world’s fastest growing this year, and the national oil company reported a 90% increase in second quarter profits. Atop all that, he’s basking in the Saudi soccer team’s upset victory over Argentina at the World Cup.

How close are the two countries. Armaments excepted China and Saudi Arabia are very important trading partners:

While the U.S. remains the kingdom’s largest arms supplier, China has become its major trading partner, entirely as a result of large imports of Saudi oil. Each has invested billions in the other’s country and more doubtlessly will be announced this trip.

Obviously, each leader is running a rather ruthless surveillance state. Dissent is certainly not tolerated. And no one gets to vote:

Both men oversee sophisticated, pervasive internal intelligence systems. Saudis, already increasingly reluctant to speak, will do so only in the absence of cellphones. Digital currency and even more intrusive surveillance allow the Chinese government to track every move of citizens, who are assigned a “social credit” score that measures their “trustworthiness” and metes out punishments and privileges accordingly. China’s internal-security budget is nearly as large as its rapidly growing defense budget.

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