In the current stage of the great clash of civilizations, we are not doing very well. So says David Goldman and he has become our go-to source on such matters.
For today we cast our gaze toward the Middle East, where China’s president Xi Jinping has just wrapped up a series of meetings in Saudi Arabia. The purpose of the meanings was to forge new alliances with the Saudis and the other Gulf Arab countries. Apparently, the meetings were a rousing success, though we are obliged to note with Goldman that their existence tended to loosen ties between China and Iran.
You recall Iran. When we read of the axis of autocracy that is forming around the world, we hear tell of Iran, Russia and China. Well, apparently, Iran is more of a junior partner than the other two, and China is keeping something of a sane distance from the Islamic Republic.
If you read about this in the American media or if you listen to American politicians you will gain the impression that China wants to rule the world, that it wants to defeat America in grand struggle for political power.
According to Goldman, such is not the case:
American strategists imagine that China wants to project power globally because they think that China is as stupid as they are.
Goldman believes that China wants to project soft powers and to keep international markets open for its products. It wants, especially in the Middle East, to have continuing access to energy sources. It largely prefers diplomacy to warfare, and is certainly not prepared for anything like violent conflict.
Nonetheless, China’s soft power is reshaping the Middle East, and Beijing is loath to let spoiler regimes like Tehran ruin everyone else’s good time. Its diplomacy is cautious, reticent and unimaginative—but fully alert to threats to its long-term interests.
The risk we face is that the unhinged rhetoric by our politicians and pundits provokes armed conflict. Such would be the cost of misreading Chinese intentions, taking them for an enemy rather than a competitor.
Nevertheless, I emphasize that all of the talking heads on television are persuaded that China is a mortal enemy, one that we must confront immediately and with force. Has anyone been suggesting that they tone down the rhetoric, just a notch?
If you take a quick glance at the map of Asia you will see that there is no open seaway from China to anywhere, let alone the Middle East, that would enable China to project direct power against any countries other than, for example, Japan, Taiwan, the Koreas and Malaysia. In my opinion, Xi should have stopped off in India to deal with Modi to assure access to the Malacca Straight if he intends to import oil from Saudi Arabia. Failing that, Xi must be relying the US Navy to continue to protect the waterways between China and the Middle East. But, is that realistic?
ReplyDeleteJapan has a very large deepwater navy; China has a large navy as well but most of its ships are relatively small and can't sail far. Its not very large aircraft carrier has two long boxes on its deck that are somehow supposed to represent launchers for aircraft. Most likely, the Japanese navy would keep the Chines navy tied up in port should hostilities arise
After watching the debacle that Putin got Russia into in the Ukraine, Xi had at least the common sense to try to hire French pilots to teach Chinese pilots how to fly in combat. As with Putin, Xi is known for shooting the messenger so he is reputedly told only what he wants to hear, not what he should hear. The capabilities of the Chinese army will reflect what the reality is, not what XI has been told it is. But, as with Putin, the decision to go to war cannot be based on one westerner's common sense but rather the goals of Xi in the future situation he finds himself in. Again, in my opinion, it would be suicidal for China to attempt to project anything other than soft power, but no one can predict the future when really stupid communists are the decision makers.
In this regard, the Chinese economy is teetering on collapse, and for many reasons, such as Covid-19 total shutdowns, over reliance on essentially worthless residential real estate investments by millions of Chinese to shore up the GDP, the loss of many foreign investors and manufacturers, and the like. So, notwithstanding my reading of the reality, China could go to war (with who knows) if the CCP decides that it is the only way it can hold onto power if the Chinese economy collapses and large scale rioting ensues.
The West had a deal with Saudi Arabia: oil in return for regime protection (and prosperity). The West has been very vocal in announcing the end of that deal, first by claiming to go Carbon Neutral, and second by reneging on their regime protection promise through a> trying to set up secret deals with arch rival Iran, b> limiting military options in Jemen: an insurgency stoked by Iran, and c> harping on about Khashoggi (so much noise about that man you have to wonder whose asset he was). Small wonder MBS is looking for a better patron.
ReplyDeleteDavid Goldman saying that the west misunderstands China is the flip side of Gordon Chang saying the CCP will soon collapse. Like Chang, Goldman has been reading from his own hymnal for decades.
ReplyDeleteGoldman says that he hates the CCP but he continues to make his living in China, with no interference from the authorities there.
It is my belief that ineptitude abounds in every country's political leadership. It is now politics, not religion that provides opportunities for scoundrels to advance. Whereas business rewards people with high intelligence and drive to succeed, politics rewards people of middle intellect with an overwhelming desire to control the behavior of others. America prospered when people fitting the first category were in ascendancy, but it is now on a downward path since those fitting the second category are in control. And I do mean CONTROL.
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