Who’s afraid of Donald Trump?
Among those who are not especially afraid of Trump are Democratic political strategists. They do not believe that Trump can win and they seem to believe that their one chance of holding on to the White House in 2024 is to run against Trump.
Trump thinks of himself as a chronic winner; he has become more like a chronic whiner. It’s a bad look. It does not inspire confidence. It feels like sore-loserdom.
Whatever the reason, people who are in the business of defeating Republicans in elections are a lot more scared of Ron DeSantis than of Donald Trump.
Bloomberg reports:
Democrats are unfazed, even giddy about a possible 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But the prospect of facing upstart Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is prompting whispers of angst within Democratic circles.
And also:
While Biden advisers and allies haven’t yet settled on a strategy to thwart DeSantis, the White House hasn’t missed an opportunity to knock him in an effort to weaken him before he can announce a presidential bid, according to conversations with Biden advisers and Democratic strategists.
Democrats worry that DeSantis, who presides over a large, diverse and former swing state, could appeal to possible Biden voters, those who would otherwise lean Republican, but were repelled by Trump’s baggage, the advisers and strategists said.
Biden allies privately worry that DeSantis’s record could appeal to the same set of independent, female or suburban voters who Biden needs to court to win. Though many also argue DeSantis is not tested nationally and could fumble in the GOP primary, with voters or on the debate stage against other Republicans.
So, Democrats see DeSantis as a far younger and more energetic candidate, one who speaks grammatically, and who also is capable of governing. Trump without the drama. Some people live for the drama, but most people are exhausted by it.
Yet a huge part of Biden’s message for 2024 is his ability to govern successfully and normally, without the chaos and drama of Trump. DeSantis can argue he too can govern, drama-free. While Democrats view him as right wing and extreme politically, voters have not tagged him that way so far, pollsters say.
The DeSantis strategy is to drive most of the other candidates out of the race and make it a two-man contest. In that, he would have advantages. If the anti-Trump vote is dispersed, he will not.
Democrats are watching the governor closely. The DNC recently hired a Tallahassee-based staffer to respond to DeSantis in real time. That press aide will start before the Florida legislature session begins in March.
They have reason to worry. Recent polling from Suffolk University/USA Today shows DeSantis beating Biden, 47% to 43% in a hypothetical match-up, whereas the same poll showed Biden handily beating Trump, 47% to 40%. A majority of voters in the same poll said they wanted neither Biden nor Trump to run again in 2024.
As for the DeSantis strategy, it is short term, not yet long term.
DeSantis allies, meanwhile, say he the governor is disciplined and energetic. He has taken jabs at the Biden team for its handling of inflation and for Democrats’ handling of curricula in schools on diversity and gender.
“These are opportunities to make a little news — stir the pot — without really getting into it with Trump. And Republican voters love it, and it helps him in his quest to win the nomination,” said Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy. “But I don’t think they’re message testing something to run in the general election against Joe Biden. This is a short term strategy. It’s not long game.”
What will the long term strategy look like? We do not know. I would emphasize here that Trump has been taking up the DeSantis talking points about schools and wokeism, but that makes him sound like an echo, not a choice.
My take is that DeSantis is waiting to see if Biden runs again. If so he will throw his hat into the ring.
ReplyDeleteIf Biden is passed by, for say Michelle Obama, then he will sit it out.
I have been reading about Biden for a few months, and what I am seeing is some guy who is losing his marbles and democrats lying to me (it's what they do...) (and everyone else) wholesale about him.
ReplyDeleteYour mileage may vary.
It all depends on things that haven't happened yet. Can Trump win? No if the Republican elite oppose him. But if they oppose him it is likely that his supporters won't want to vote for the candidate picked by Republican elite. The game as the Republicans are playing it now is a lose lose. But any number of national and international events or surprises could change everything. Evidence could surface that Biden has in fact taken money from the Chinese to sell out America and that numerous Democrat congressmen were in on it. Biden could die or become a vegetable and the VP take over and screw it all up worse. China could invade Tiawan and totally take it over in under 24 hours destroying a portion of our Pacific fleet in the process. Any number of things could happen that would make Trump look like Jesus and make Democrats and the Republican elite look like Judas.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I seem to remember that the democrats were giddy over the prospect of Trump being the Republican candidate back in the olden thymes of 2016. Their euphoria was counterbalanced by the gloom and doom among establishment republicans who were equally certain that Trump could never, ever become president. I believe I recall a few talking head types, late night "comedians" and political gurus making public declarations to that effect, pledging their reputations as prognosticators in the process. Then, despite everything we read, saw and heard from these loathsome reptilians, we voted and Trump became the 45th President of the United States of America. Good times, good times.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrat political strategists are ignoramuses if they believe Trump would be easier to beat than DeSantis. To begin with, neither one will win until election fraud is minimized. If by some miracle we have a mostly honest election, Trump would win, DeSantis would lose. The Never Trumpers like to think that DeSantis is "Trump without the baggage," that he would get all the Trump votes and then some. But about the time the prominent, Trump-hating RINO’s like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan come out in favor of DeSantis over Trump, and DeSantis gets the nomination, many of those Trump supporters will stay home rather than vote for the RINO’s object of adoration. It is simply impossible to be both a Donald Trump and loved by the RINO's.
ReplyDelete