Saturday, August 20, 2016

Is Trump Pivoting?

Whatever Kellyanne Conway is getting paid, it’s not enough.

Perhaps Donald Trump was always, at heart, a ladies’ man, but he has been doing much better since he put his campaign in Conway’s capable hands.

Then again, for all we know, the presiding genie behind the most recent Trump pivot is none other than Roger Ailes himself. Jonah Goldberg suggests it, and we are inclined to believe him. Whatever you think about Ailes, he is a genius at the art of political communication. Perhaps one of the great geniuses.

Would it not be ironic if the feminist outrage that got Ailes fired for sexual harassment at Fox News freed him up to take over the Trump campaign and deny Hillary the presidency?

So, we have a new improved Trump. Gone is the machismo, the bullying, the taunts and threats and intimidation. Gone is the name calling. For practically the first time Trump is acting more like a presidential candidate and less like a caricature.

Let us count the ways.

First, two days ago Trump expressed regret. Eating humble pie, as it used to be called, is clearly an important, even an essential first step toward transformation. I have written about it extensively, perhaps too extensively.

The prior Trump attitude, never explain, never apologize, was worthy of a schoolyard bully or a sociopath It was unworthy of a presidential candidate. It made him look small.

Second, Trump stepped down from his gold-plated aerie and visited flood ravaged Louisiana. Many people, myself included, had been appalled by President Obama’s failure to do so. Our president could not even acknowledge the horrors of the flood that had been drowning much of the state of Louisiana. Doubtless Obama was trying to ignore it, to run out the clock, so it would appear to be the responsibility of his successor.

If Obama sees himself as King Louis XV, the man whose favorite mistress once declared: After us, the deluge, he may see the Louisiana flood is a bad omen.

In any event, as Woody Allen said, most of what matters in life is showing up. And Trump showed up in Louisiana. For once he looked presidential. He looked like he gave a damn about something other than his bouffant hairdo.

For his part, Obama was on the golf course. His spokespeople rushed out to explain that if he went to Louisiana, his presence would disrupt operations. Strangely enough, George W’s spokespeople used the same argument when he flew over New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. And, at the time, then Senator Barack Obama denounced Bush for insensitivity.

Now his spokespeople, fraudulent to the last, are defending Obama's sensitivity.

Note well, however that Trump’s action has shamed Obama into getting off the links and on to a plane to Louisiana. This Tuesday is the day. As for Hillary, she’s resting at home with Huma.

Trump got it right because he communicated with a gesture. It’s always a good thing to do so, because you are showing, not telling. You are setting an example and not telling people what to do or to think.

Third, Trump addressed African-American voters with an argument that was brilliantly formulated and communicated. Asking for their votes, he ran through the record of the Obama administration and asked them: “What do you have to lose?

What do you have to lose? How much worse can it get? Why not try a Republican? It’s a powerful argument, made more powerful because it was communicated so effectively.

Trump said:

We cannot make America Great Again if we leave any community behind.

Nearly four in ten African-American children are living in poverty. I will not rest until children of every color in this country are fully included in the American Dream….

On education, we are going to give students choice, and allow charter schools to thrive. We are going to end tenure policies that reward bad teachers and hurt good ones. My opponent wants to deny students choice and opportunity, all to get a little bit more money from the education bureaucracy. She doesn’t care how many young dreams are dashed in the process….

Look at how badly things are going under decades of Democratic leadership – look at the schools, look at the 58% of young African-Americans not working. It is time for change.

What do you have to lose by trying something new? 

Some people-- who think they know more than they do-- believe that the key to winning elections is manipulating people’s minds, exploiting their emotional vulnerabilities. There may be some truth to the proposition, but—call me a wild-eyed optimist-- I believe that an appeal to reason will, in the long run, be more effective.

“What do you have to lose…” is a brilliant formulation. It ought to be studied in courses about political communication. It respects the intelligence of African-American voters and asks them to reflect on what the Democratic Party has done for them. Have their lives improved under a president who cares more about his golf game than about people who put him in office?

Trump asked these voters to think, how much worse can it really get? He did not tell them to vote for him, but to consider voting for him. It might mean taking a chance, but, given the alternative, isn’t it a chance worth taking?

Like it or not, the Trump campaign seems to have been transformed. How long it will last no one knows. Since everyone is convinced that it cannot last, it probably will. At least it will until everyone is convinced that it can last.

 Is it too little too late? No one knows that either. But surely, it is a positive step. Considering that some of us have been willing to point out every Trump misstep, it is good to be able to report some positive developments.

The next positive development for the Trump campaign would be firing Katrina Pearson.

11 comments:

  1. In my view, this election will hinge on turnout.

    Looking at the difference in numbers and enthusiasm for the two candidates' rallies and speaking events, Clinton has a problem. Her base is uninspired, motivated purely by ideological affiliation. If enthusiasm drives victory, Trump wins.

    On the other hand, turnout also includes fraudulent voting. Clinton has engaged noncitizens in the turnout effort, noncitizens who are being tempted by Instant Citizenship and all the attendant benefits (in the form of both money and conferred group identity legal advantages). This is powerful motivator, and especially effective in a Motor Voter, sanctuary city, ID-less, consequence-free legal environment.

    I'd say she wins. The "appeal to reason" strategy works for the Oxford Union, but not for a political campaign. The fecklessness of the Republican majority is empirical evidence of this.

    We're not in a debate. We're in a war.

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  2. A week is a year in campaigning. The Donald has had a very good year. May it continue.

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  3. "Considering that some of us have been willing to point out every Trump misstep, it is good to be able to report some positive developments."

    Thank you.

    I think there are a lot of people in America who have been waiting to hear the message Trump is delivering for a long time. It's really basic: "You count." Taking on the teachers unions. Standing for law and order. Having a sane, structured immigration policy. Recognizing that manufacturing creates wealth, and we have to look out for the economic prospects of all Americans. Recognizing that every other country in the world is looking out for its best interests, why not us? And appealing to American core values of creativity, enterprise and hard work. Wow. How novel. Good for him, because it is novel these days.

    He's attacking Democrats where they are most vulnerable, and these are issues milquetoast Republicans have avoided for fear of upsetting their DC-connected friends. It strikes me that Trump is really hitting Hillary where it counts, and his message is building. It reminds me of what Lincoln said about Grant when so many were calling Grant a butcher: "I can't spare this man, he fights."

    Trump needs to keep hitting her regularly, simply and relentlessly. Like a "Rocky" movie. Wear her out. Finish the job. The time for being country club polite is over. They wanted this war, and they can have it in all its splendor. No mercy, until we've won in November. Then we have to get to the serious work at hand, and that includes rebuilding our national culture. It's a republic, and yes... we can keep it.

    I suppose Jonah Goldberg doesn't like Roger Ailes anymore, now that Aikes is supporting Trump. (sigh) This election has taught me a great deal about the conservative intellectual class. I'm not much interested in hearing from them anymore. They're as entrenched, sclerotic and etiquette-obsessed as anyone else in the Acela corridor. It's provided a good reminder for why Americans have traditionally been anti-intellectual. We generally believe in things more tangible, more real. George Will may be gone a long time, and may not be welcomed back. But in his resolute stand for Reaganesque intellectual purity, it is likely Will will not be back. Good riddance. I love Reagan, but this is a different time. Reagan had to stand up to the Soviets. Today, we have to stand up to the domestic and global Left as the totalitarian social/economic/political cancer it is, infecting our institutions, destroying our sovereignty and the value of citizenship. If that's not high-brow enough for Goldberg, then what on earth did he write "Liberal Facism" for?

    And no, it's not "too little, too late." For goodness sake, we're not yet to Labor Day. The conventions used to be ending around now. There's plenty of time. He can do this. I believe he will.

    If Trump can build, build, build, and then pique by October 15, he can win this thing. He might even be able to win big. He can smash Hillary in the debates by articulating a focus on OUR country and speaking simple and straight. He's not afraid, and he's not politically correct. That's what Americans have been waiting for, after an 8-year apology tour abroad, and a government orgy at home. The Obama presidency has been a fraud, as was his candidacy and life narrative. Time to bring this chapter to a close. FORE!

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  4. And please remember: the Left's apoplexy will build as Trump's strength builds. They will become more warped, unglued and unhinged with each passing day. They will pop off, scream, sit in, march, riot, protest, vandalize, scorch and destroy everything in front of them. And this will be good for the nation to see. No, it will not be good for the nation to endure, as we see the riots, beatings, shootings, and other attendant lunacy that Lefties bring to every activist undertaking. We will see their full anger on parade. Unfortunately, people will get hurt, and it will be ugly. But our fellow citizens will finally see where the Democrat Party has gone: hard Left. And this is what the Left does. They are destroyers. And I'm confident the majority of people will be disgusted and fed up, and they will show up for Trump as their best expression of "NO!" to the violent reality that Leftism brings. It will all backfire, and none too soon.

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  5. Trigger Warning said...
    In my view, this election will hinge on turnout.

    Looking at the difference in numbers and enthusiasm for the two candidates' rallies and speaking events, Clinton has a problem. Her base is uninspired, motivated purely by ideological affiliation. If enthusiasm drives victory, Trump wins.

    On the other hand, turnout also includes fraudulent voting.

    * * *
    Not to mention Democrat governors restoring voting rights for felons, and Presidents pardoning drug-dealers.
    * * *
    gnatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...
    And please remember: the Left's apoplexy will build as Trump's strength builds. They will become more warped, unglued and unhinged with each passing day. They will pop off, scream, sit in, march, riot, protest, vandalize, scorch and destroy everything in front of them. And this will be good for the nation to see. No, it will not be good for the nation to endure, as we see the riots, beatings, shootings, and other attendant lunacy that Lefties bring to every activist undertaking. We will see their full anger on parade. Unfortunately, people will get hurt, and it will be ugly.
    * * *
    Unfortunately, the media will spin all of the destruction as being the fault of the Trump supporters -- that's what they did this week-end (and earlier as well).

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  6. AesopFan: I've got a feeling the monolithic media narrative won't work if (a) the Left goes nuts and (b) Trump gets on message (and stays on message). Both variables are not out of the realm of possibility. America is not an ideological nation, and Trump is not an ideological candidate. I think the Left's hubris will blow up in their face. Perhaps you think me naive, but I really think people will find the unrestrained Left repellant. The media can distort a message. However, media lies cannot distort the real personal experience of voters. Spin is still spin until it comes up against truth.

    As an aside, I'm waiting for Obama to scold the people attacking Trump supporters, saying "That's not who we are." I'm not stupid enough to believe it will happen, but I'm still waiting. In fact, I'd love it if Trump started using Obama's silly platitudes against him.

    After all, "The future must not belong to those who slander the Prophet of Islam."

    Are people who threaten and use violence against Trump supporters "on the wrong side of history"?

    Ugh.

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  7. There was an interesting Weekend Interview in Saturday's WSJ. James Taranto interviews Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, about his analysis of Trump. It's very interesting, and spot on. I encourage you to read it.

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  8. Stuart: In any event, as Woody Allen said, most of what matters in life is showing up.

    The quote I remember was "80% of success in life is showing up."

    Here it is:
    http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/06/10/showing-up/
    ---
    Quote Investigator: The earliest close match known to QI was printed in the New York Times in August 1977. Woody Allen and Marshall Brickman co-wrote the Oscar winning screenplay for the 1977 movie Annie Hall, and they were interviewed together by the journalist Susan Braudy. The following words were spoken by Marshall Brickman, but he attributed the adage to Woody Allen:

    I have learned one thing. As Woody says, ‘Showing up is 80 percent of life.’ Sometimes it’s easier to hide home in bed. I’ve done both.
    ...
    ..the comedian to attempt to ascertain the correct version:

    “The quote you refer to,” Mr. Allen writes, “is a quote of mine which occurred during an interview while we were discussing advice to young writers, and more specifically young playwrights.

    “My observation was that once a person actually completed a play or a novel he was well on his way to getting it produced or published, as opposed to a vast majority of people who tell me their ambition is to write, but who strike out on the very first level and indeed never write the play or book.

    “In the midst of the conversation, as I’m now trying to recall it, I did say that 80 percent of success is showing up.”

    Why that particular percentage? “The figure seems high to me today,” Mr. Allen says, “but I know it was more than 60 and the extra syllable in 70 ruins the rhythm of the quote, so I think we should let it stand at 80.”
    ---

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  9. Ares, you are insufferable.

    Go back to your own blog. It needs you. Make yourself great again. 100% of life is you bring you. Be you on your blog, and not here.

    ReplyDelete