I among others have found it peculiar that as fine a
publication as The Economist could be
an Obama supporter.
Yet, the magazine is not run by a band of ideological zealots so
it still reveres fact. Having resisted the lure to
become an entertainment vehicle, it still provides solid information. As Time and Newsweek pass into the dustbin of history, The Economist is thriving.
Case in point, a new story explains that the Islamic
terrorism that Barack Obama said was on the path to defeat is on the march. I among others have pointed to the fact, so it’s good to have a reputable publication telling us how it is:
A FEW
months ago Barack Obama declared that al-Qaeda was “on the path to defeat”. Its
surviving members, he said, were more concerned for their own safety than with
plotting attacks on the West. Terrorist attacks of the future, he claimed,
would resemble those of the 1990s—local rather than transnational and focused
on “soft targets”. His overall message was that it was time to start winding
down George Bush’s war against global terrorism.
Mr
Obama might argue that the assault on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi by
al-Qaeda’s Somali affiliate, the Shabab, was just the kind of thing he was
talking about: lethal, shocking, but a long way from the United States. Yet the
inconvenient truth is that, in the past 18 months, despite the relentless
pummelling it has received and the defeats it has suffered, al-Qaeda and its jihadist
allies have staged an extraordinary comeback. The terrorist network now holds
sway over more territory and is recruiting more fighters than at any time in
its 25-year history (see article). Mr Obama must reconsider.
Drone attacks had seriously damaged al Qaeda’s central
leadership. The Somali branch called al Shabab was on the ropes. Al Qaeda in
the Arabian peninsula was in trouble.
No more.
The
Economist reports:
The
Shabab is recruiting more foreign fighters than ever (some of whom appear to
have been involved in the attack on the Westgate). AQAP was responsible for the
panic that led to the closure of 19 American embassies across the region and a
global travel alert in early August. Meanwhile al-Qaeda’s core, anticipating
the withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan after 2014, is already moving
back into the country’s wild east.
Funnily enough, for those who were heralding a new
democratic Middle East two years ago, the Arab Spring has been a godsend for
Islamic terrorists:
The
coup against a supposedly moderate Islamist elected government in Egypt has
helped restore al-Qaeda’s ideological power. Weapons have flooded out of Libya
and across the region, and the civil war in Syria has revived one of the
network’s most violent and unruly offshoots, al-Qaeda in Iraq, now grandly
renamed the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.
One might reasonably question whether the Egyptian military’s
effort to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood represents a victory for Islamists. If
you believe that Islamic terrorism is that important a threat, you should
support any and all efforts to suppress it. If you say that efforts to suppress
it by force inflame it, you are offering a counsel of despair.
That being said, the fall of Qadhafi in Libya and the
ongoing Syrian civil war have certainly stoked the flames of Islamic terror.
Why has this happened? The
Economist answers that the fault lies with what it calls “Western
complacency,” by which it means, the foreign policy of the Obama
administration:
How
much should Western complacency be blamed for this stunning revival? Quite a
bit. Mr Obama was too eager to cut and run from Iraq. He is at risk of
repeating the mistake in Afghanistan. America has been over-reliant on drone
strikes to “decapitate” al-Qaeda groups: the previous defence secretary, Leon
Panetta, even foolishly talked of defeating the network by killing just 10-20
leaders in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. The general perception of America’s
waning appetite for engagement in the Middle East, underlined by Mr Obama’s
reluctance to support the moderate Syrian opposition in any useful way has been
damaging as well.
Apparently, American weakness is a very effective recruiting
tool for terrorists. It tells prospective jihadis that they might be on the
winning side in the war against an increasingly ineffectual America.
Is America also losing the battle of ideas? The Economist bemoans the fact that we
have failed to win over moderate Muslims. Doubtless, it is right. But perhaps
the reason is that moderate Muslims have been terrorized. Surely, they are not
immune from Islamic terrorism. They count among its most important targets.
It makes sense that rich Gulf petrostates have been more
than willing to buy off the terrorists.
They have no choice. It’s better than waiting for America to
come and save them.