For now, it’s all Donald Trump. This morning Peggy Noonan
pens an encomium to the real estate developer by channeling an acquaintance
from Georgia, a true believer who shares what Noonan calls Trump’s contempt for
government and who agrees that if Donald says he can do it he can do it.
Noonan writes:
So, why
Trump? “The whole country will be in better shape. And ISIS won’t like it that
he’s in charge. He’s very wealthy and can turn around the economy. He’ll get
things moving. The Donald will kick a—.” She knows other supporters locally and
among friends of her son, an Iraq vet. “They’re completely disgusted and just
furious, and he’s igniting their passion. He’s telling them ‘I will make this
country great again,’ and they believe him.” Mr. Trump is dismissed as
exciting, but “we have to get excited to get up out of the chair to vote.”
Hmmm… being wealthy means that you can turn around the
economy? Does this Georgian have any evidence to support the assertion?
Trump’s positions have been all over the political spectrum.
Sometimes they verge on incoherent, and clearly there is no reason to believe
that he can do the job. We are talking about some very serious on-the-job
training. Unless you believe that Vladimir Putin is going to start quaking at
the prospect of confronting the Donald....
None of it seems to bother people who thrill to the notion
that someone is finally standing up, not just to the Democrats, but to Islamic terrorists and the
media elites who have cowed the rest of the opposition into silence.
Trump is the polar opposite of an administration that has been sucking up the ayatollahs. The spectacle of America surrendering in negotiations with Iran has impelled the candidacy of someone who, whatever mess he might make, will not be crawling to Tehran, begging for a deal.
One understands that Trump seems to be ready to restore wounded American pride. One admires his supporters’ enthusiasm, but still, new polls
yesterday came out showing that Trump is the one major Republican candidate who is losing to
all three top Democrats… by a lot. It’s not because of a lack of name
recognition. Trump is down substantially when he is pitted against Hillary
Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.
Many Republicans have now chosen not to fight the Trump
steamroller. They are waiting—and hoping—that it runs out of steam on its own.
One must say, however, that next to Trump, the other Republican
candidates are looking small. Stature and gravitas matter, even though, as
happens with Trump it is more show than substance. After all, people who have
accomplished great things let their achievements speak for them.
When it comes to governance Trump has no achievements to
speak of; thus, he can do no more than bluff by insisting boisterously that he can do it. I suspect that he believes every word he says,
but that does not make it true.
By comparison, note Camille Paglia’s description of Rand
Paul, someone with whom she generally sympathizes. She offers a cogent
explanation for why the Rand Paul campaign is moribund:
As a
libertarian, I find myself agreeing with Rand Paul on so many different social
and political issues. Unfortunately, however, Paul lacks gravitas as a physical
presence. The U.S. presidency has a highly ceremonial aspect. The
president isn’t merely a prime minister, a political leader–he’s the symbolic
embodiment of the nation. Therefore, physical attributes and vocal style are
very important.
One might say the same of Jeb Bush, another conspicuous
casualty of Trumpmania.
Curiously, while the chattering classes and the moneyed
interests have been convinced that the presidential candidates would be named
Clinton and Bush, I have suspected that neither Clinton nor Bush would be on
the ballot. For now it seems clear that Jeb is not going to make it. He’s
fading in the polls. At a time when people want tomorrow’s candidate, he is
increasingly looking like yesterday’s news.
In Paglia’s words:
The
major media have been constantly saying that Jeb is the GOP front-runner, which
is utter nonsense. It’s the same thing with Hillary–the polls have just been
showing name recognition, nothing more. I’ve been looking at the comments on
political news articles since last year, and Jeb Bush seems to have absolutely
no support whatever–like zero! To this day, I’ve never seen an online
commenter enthusiastically supporting him. It’s really strange! All
these rich people throw big money at him, but I don’t know who his voters could
possibly be.
Of course, Paglia has always been a stern critic of Hillary
Clinton, and I agree with her that Clinton’s chances have been fading with her
approval ratings. Democrats are
currently looking around for anyone who can replace her… that means Elizabeth
Warren or Joe Biden.
And yet, the only other candidate who has approval ratings
as bad as Mrs. Clinton’s is Donald Trump. Strangely, more and more Republicans
are embracing him as their savior.
Strangely, Paglia seems to believe that Barack Obama had
exactly the right kind of gravitas to be president. She sees him as a
commanding presence:
He
projects a sober, unflappable confidence and presents himself with elegance and
grace–all of which produced his success early on, when Hillary was the
frontrunner in 2008.
In principle, we should all know better than that by now.
Obama’s deer-in-the-headlights look, his tendency to believe in his own lies ...
none of it makes him appear to be a strong leader, a commanding presence. Paglia
is wrong to overlook the manifest weakness, the pusillanimous demeanor of our
current president.
Of course, Trump does not display the calm confidence of a
true leader. But, next to Obama and Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi… to say nothing
of the weak-looking Boehner and McConnell… Trump looks like the real thing.
Keep in mind, it’s much easier to project an image when you
do not have to forge political compromises and to defend a record.
For Paglia, Obama is a blind spot. But, on the topic of presidential stature and presence, Paglia’s remarks are on point:
In the
primary debates, Cruz will benefit from having a tall and commanding physique,
as Bill De Blasio did in the New York mayoral debates. On the whole,
Republicans don’t seem to realize that persona and self-presentation are
crucial in a media age. For example, Rand Paul has obviously had his eye
on the presidency for years, so it’s astonishing that he apparently has never
given any thought to how he should dress or cut his hair or even stand in front
of cameras. It’s as if his idea of style was flash-frozen in the Everly
Brothers era. The tall candidate often has a big advantage in any campaign….
People do want a sense of implicit authority in the president.
If she’s right, look for Joe Biden to enter the race at some
point in the fall. One recalls that he managed to make Paul Ryan look small in
the 2012 vice presidential debate. Those who thrilled at Ryan’s marvelous
intellect failed to notice his inability to project a commanding presence.
What do Republicans have against Donald Trump… aside from
the fact that he does not look like he can win the election? For a more
substantive critique we turn to David Goldman, aka Spengler:
He [Trump]
blames most of America’s problems on a “tidal wave” of illegal Hispanic
immigrants and unfair Chinese trade practices. He reminds me of H.L. Mencken’s
classic one-liner: “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear,
simple and wrong.” One might add, “dangerous,” because Trump appeals to our
desire to blame someone else for problems we created.
Surely, it is possible that some part of Trump’s appeal lies
in his ability to shift the blame for America’s problems. But then, Trump has strongly
opposed the American media and American politicians. It’s not as though he has
limited himself to blaming the Mexicans and the Chinese.
Goldman offers some data to sustain his argument:
Immigration
from Mexico actually fell after the 2008 crash, mainly because construction
jobs disappeared. The best data we have suggest that net immigration from
Mexico was negative between 2005 and 2010–that is, more Mexicans left the US
than arrived. Hispanics, to be sure, are more visible in the workforce–their
share of total employment has risen from about 14% 10 years to to 17% today–but
that is due to the natural increase in the Hispanic population. In 1990, non-Hispanic
whites had a fertility rate of 1.7 children per female, vs. 2.9 children for
Hispanics. This bumper crop of Hispanic children has been entering the
workforce for the past several years. But that has nothing to do with recent
trends in immigration.
Somehow or other Goldman neglects to factor in the more
recent increases in illegal immigration that followed Obama’s initiatives.
As for the influence of China, Goldman adds this:
As for
China: During the early 2000′s, US imports from China were growing at 20%-30% a
year. Since 2011, imports from China have hardly grown. That’s because China’s
currency has appreciated by one-third since 2005 (from 12 cents to the dollar
to 16 cents), making Chinese goods pricier in the American market.
What should we be worrying about? Our loss of industrial and
technological competitiveness. Goldman explains:
China
is graduating twice as many PhD’s in STEM (science, technology, engineering,
math) disciplines as the US. China’s economy is way behind the US, but catching
up fast in key areas. Chinese missiles can sink any US aircraft carrier within a range of
several hundred miles from its coast. China can knock out American satellites.
Chinese computation capabilities are on par with America’s. China has more
industrial robots installed than any country in the world. China is about to
become the dominant producer of Internet communications equipment (with Huawei
replacing Cisco as the global market leader). China and its periphery
manufacture everything that goes into American tech products.
America
used to have disruptive, innovative tech companies. Now we have corporate
giants run by patent trolls rather than engineers whose mission is to suppress
innovation. Apple, a design company that relies on Asian production, now
accounts for two-thirds of all profits in the S&P 500 Technology Sub-Index.
America
used to have nonpareil defense technology. Now we are betting the defense
budget on the F-35, a plane like the proverbial horse designed by a committee,
and sold by defense industry lobbyists.
Can Donald Trump reverse these trends with his negotiating
skills? Will the pending loss of competitive technological advantage be
reversed when Trump talks tough with the Chinese? I have my doubts.
Still, it appears that Trump is working to restore our flagging national pride. Since the Obama administration has been giving it away as though it was of no real value, apparently, it takes a Trump, a flamboyant showman to rise above the din and to remind us of what it can be.
Goldman agrees with Trump that we ought definitely to close
the border. If it requires a fence, let’s build a fence. As for reversing the
flow of immigrants, apparently the slowdown in the construction industry was a
highly effective way to encourage what Mitt Romney called “self-deportation.”