The Mind of Cramer, 2

In a previous post on "The Mind of Cramer," dated October 9, I suggested that the recent market crash might show that the market was discounting President Obama.

This post elicited numerous derisive emails. The gist was: I had mistaken correlation for causation. For all the cold reason that my post contained, I might as well have been evoking astrology.

Of course, the same deeply rational thinkers believe that the market crash is casting a judgment on the Bush administration. They have bought the political spin, and have forgotten that markets anticipate the future.

Besides, how can the market not be loving the prospect of an Obama presidency when most citizens tell pollsters that Obama would do a better job of managing the economy.

To which one is tempted to reply that presidents do not manage the economy. And besides, while the citizenry votes at the ballot box, investors and investment managers vote in the marketplace. The two do not necessarily coincide.

Mine was something of a bare bones argument, so I am happy to provide a link to a Wall Street Journal op-ed by one George Newman. Newman, an economist and retired executive, fleshes out my arguments, noting cogently that it would be irresponsible for a money manager to ignore the fiscal policies that would be promulgated by an Obama presidency and a ruling Democratic Congressional majority.

Admittedly, since I made my suggestion, other publications have shown the correlation between McCain's poll numbers and the Dow. But I think that Newman's piece is the best. Link here.