Meanwhile, Diplomacy Proceeds Apace

In a better world Donald Trump would not be Donald Trump’s own worst enemy. After enjoying a largely successful week, especially against arch-nemesis CNN, Trump shot himself in the… by posting a tweet about a couple of no-account talk show hosts. 

Allowing himself to be baited into looking like anything but a president, he fueled yet another round of media attacks. If he knows that media producers spent most of their waking hours trying to find anything that will delegitimize him, he should not feed their rage.

For the record, when you are President of the United States fighting back can never involve making a disparaging remark about a woman’s facelift. It diminishes you and affirms everyone’s low opinion of you. Be serious, folks.

In the meantime, the diplomatic maneuvering over North Korea continues apace. A week ago today I posted about Trump’s tweet to China… in which he thanked the Chinese government for trying to control North Korea, adding that it has not worked out.

Since then the policy has gotten some muscle, from the United States, and has elicited a response from China.

To review events,  on Wednesday Reuters (via Maggie's Farm) reported that China had suspended fuel sales to North Korea:

China National Petroleum Corp has suspended sales of fuel to North Korea over concerns the state-owned oil company won't get paid, as pressure mounts on Pyongyang to rein in its nuclear and missile programmes, three sources told Reuters.   

It's unclear how long the suspension will last. A prolonged cut would threaten critical supplies of fuel and force North Korea to find alternatives to its main supplier of diesel and gasoline, as scrutiny of China's close commercial ties with its increasingly isolated neighbour intensifies.   

Apparently, the act has produced something of an effect:

Data for May released on Friday showed China supplied significantly lower volumes of diesel and gasoline compared with a month earlier, although monthly tonnages can vary widely. June data will be released in late July. 

  

Fuel prices in North Korea, meanwhile, have sharply risen in recent months, suggesting a tightening in supply.

A Reuters analysis of data collected by Daily NK showed the price of gasoline sold by private dealers in Pyongyang and the northern border cities of Sinuiju and Hyesan had hit $1.46 per kg on June 21, up almost 50 percent from April 21. Until then, they had remained relatively stable since late last year.

Diesel prices averaged $1.20 per kg as of June 21, more than double over the same period, according to Daily NK, a website run by defectors who collect prices via phone calls with North Korean fuel traders.

For its part, the United States government has taken action against a Chinese bank that does business in North Korea. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning:

Marking a new phase in the Trump administration’s pressure on North Korea, the White House said it plans to cut off China’s Bank of Dandong from the U.S. financial system, accusing it of facilitating financing for companies involved in Pyongyang’s weapons program.

The move is an escalation in Washington’s efforts to rein in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, using a sanctions tool that proved effective under the George W. Bush administration in forcing the regime back to negotiations by cutting off Pyongyang’s financial ties to the world.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, announcing the new sanctions at the White House on Thursday, said the administration would “continue to roll out sanctions” against companies involved with Pyongyang’s weapons programs. President Donald Trump will raise the issue with leaders from the Group of 20 largest economies at a summit next week as Washington seeks to coordinate international action against Pyongyang.

“We are committed to cutting off all illegal funds going to North Korea,” Mr. Mnuchin said. “North Korea’s provocative, destabilizing and inhumane behavior will not be tolerated.”

“We are committed to targeting North Korea’s external enablers and maximizing economic pressure on the regime until it ceases its nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” he said.

Mr. Mnuchin said Thursday’s action, which will take at least two months to go into force, isn’t intended as a message to China.

This might have an effect. It might not. It beats going to war. And it does show how the diplomatic game is played.