Shut Up, America!

Consider a hypothetical. Imagine that a bright-eyed pollster, working for Gallup or Harris or Quinnipiac, calls you on the phone. This assumes that you still pick up the phone when you do not know who is calling. Let’s say that this pollster, acting in a thoroughly professional manner, asks you your opinion of certain politicians-- and even asks you who you would vote for.

Would you respond?

If you supported Donald Trump, you would be seriously disinclined to respond. Why would you risk opprobrium?

While you are feeling all sorry for the polling industry and are preparing the plot where you are going to bury it, keep in mind that the current intellectual atmosphere has proclaimed that supporting Donald Trump, or any other Republican, for that matter, is akin to shouting Heil Hitler at Nuremberg. Would you put your life on the line to offer an opinion to a stranger? 

I trust that you would not. In the first place, how do you know for whom the stranger is really working? And how do you know that your opinion will not be broadcast to the world-- causing you to lose your job, your friends and your family.

The political environment is so hostile to anything that smacks of conservatism that you can easily be forgiven for keeping your conservative opinions to yourself. 

The polling failures are a symptom of a culture where there is only one acceptable opinion. Dissent, especially conservative dissent, is now considered to be a thought crime. Surely, you have noticed that the gods of Silicon Valley only censor conservative opinions, and have no problem with anti-Semitic eliminationist propaganda from the Ayatollah in Iran.

So, the polls underestimated Trump support, because-- why would you risk being denounced as a Nazi.

Consider the case of Sen. Susan Collins from Maine. You will recall that she offered the most sensible, most reasonable and most intelligent defense of the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. For which she was targeted by those who hate intelligent, accomplished women. 

In truth, all the polls had her losing her election to one Sarah Gideon, by more or less healthy margins. In the final analysis, Collins won by around 9%. How did the pollsters get it that wrong? One suspects that her name had become anathema and that admitting to a stranger that one supported Collins risked being denounced as an enemy of women, a fascist reactionary, a racist and whatever.

Extremist rhetoric has shut down public debate in America. It is not a good sign. It does not advance the cause of democracy.

Nonetheless, we feel for Frank Luntz. These remarks are from  The Lid.

Veteran pollster Frank Luntz, contemplating his industry’s major misses in a second consecutive presidential election, declared his profession “done.” political polling dead.

The results of a highly contentious race between President Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden have Luntz feeling a little dismayed, especially when polls seemed to be indicating an easy win for the challenger for months.

“The political polling profession is done,” Luntz told Axios earlier today. “It is devastating for my industry.”

Luntz offers a different interpretation, namely that Trump supporters prefer to lie to the pollsters-- whether on purpose or because they do not feel that they have a choice, I do not know. Luntz knows better than I do, but still, why put in the effort to lie to a pollster when you can simply ignore the call?

Mainly, that supporters of the President love to mess with those conducting the surveys.

“Trump voters are hostile to pollsters because they think the pollsters want to make them look bad.  They wear it as a badge of honor that they refuse to cooperate and refuse to be interviewed,” he asserted.

“As a result, measuring the breadth of support for Donald Trump is tricky,” Luntz claimed. “But to get it wrong twice in a row by huge margins is unforgivable.”

The Lid offers this analysis of the polling.

Trump clearly outperformed their estimates in nearly every crucial state.

And it wasn’t only the presidential race. The political pollsters suggested that the Democrats will increase their lead in the House of Representatives and take the Senate. Both predictions were wrong. If Joe Biden wins the election, a GOP Senate and a shrinking Democratic margin in the House will enable the Republicans to block the most radical parts of the Democratic agenda.

A saving grace.