The Axis of Abraham

We have long since tracked the strategic realignment that has been taking place in the Middle East. In large part, credit goes to the Trump administration for producing what Walter Russell Mead calls the Axis of Abraham:

What we are looking at is the rise of a new transregional alignment. Think of it as the Axis of Abraham, linking Mr. Macron’s France with Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the U.A.E. While some observers have pooh-poohed the new peace agreements between the Gulf Arabs and Israel (and the clear Saudi support for them) as empty theater intended to help prop up President Trump, in reality the Abraham Accords reflect a major shift in regional dynamics.

The Gulf Arabs now see their own security organically linked to Israel and intend not only to exchange ambassadors but to work with the Israelis on securing the region. This means, among other things, a change in their relationship with radical Islamist groups. A House of Saud that permits Israeli commercial flights over its territory cannot simultaneously serve as the champion of hard-line Salafism.

How should America deal with the rising importance of Turkey? That is going to be an important question for the next administration:

The emerging Axis of Abraham connecting France, Israel and the U.A.E. may well be the best partner for the U.S. going forward, but the road ahead is not easy. The Emiratis, Saudis and Israelis want a say in any new negotiations with Iran and will be working with the Trump administration in its closing weeks to create new facts on the ground. 

Turkey remains a member of NATO and there are good reasons why America might prefer to narrow rather than widen the gap with Ankara. 

Russia, bracing for an adversarial relationship with the new administration, will play the spoiler where it can. Iran still has its centrifuges and network of regional proxies.

Mead does not see this as a major foreign policy challenge, but that assumes that the Biden administration does not try to reconnect with Iran and to save the mullahs-- following Obama administration policy. It also assumes that it will not try to revive the dying Palestinian cause and does not turn its back on Saudi Arabia.

It may not be major, but it is certainly interesting. Problems that do not look major today can, if mismanaged, become major tomorrow.