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It is an unassailable truth-- once you reach the peak you have nowhere to go but down. Such is the principle behind what is called contrarian investment sentiment--namely, sell what everyone wants and buy what no one wants-- but it even applies to international affairs.
Several weeks ago we reported the triumph of Volodymyr Zelensky, lion of Western democracies, beloved and adored by the American Congress, the new Winston Churchill, the leader who was defeating the Russian bear and advancing the Western democratic cause.
As the other old saying goes-- if it sounds too good to be true, it probably isn’t.
This morning resident contrarian David Goldman offered some perspective on Twitter:
Ukraine might have 23mn residents left vs. prewar paper total of 43mn, $1 tr of damage on a $120 bn GDP, and a failing military position. The Ghost of Richelieu told me a year ago that Putin would erase Ukraine as a country.
This morning in the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead warns against European triumphalism:
With many European leaders sheltering under the American security umbrella even as they double down on close economic relations with China, it isn’t clear how long the U.S. will be willing or able to protect the EU from the consequences of its geopolitical incapacity.
He adds:
Mr. Putin hasn’t yet lost his war. Fears that Russian mobilization could bring hundreds of thousands of fresh if poorly trained troops into the conflict, along with a sober assessment of the effectiveness of the Russian air campaign, are leading some in Kyiv and elsewhere to warn of a massive Russian offensive in the spring.
If Germany relents and sends tanks to Ukraine, Russian hopes for a successful offensive will take a hit. Yet even then, without American money, equipment and ammunition, Ukraine can’t continue the unequal struggle indefinitely.
What seemed to be a great victory now seems to be a lost cause.
And Stephen Bryen, in the Asia Times, suggests that the desperate call for more tanks means that Ukraine is losing the war.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine’s secret police, the SBU.
But that won’t protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
One suspects that we will be hearing less and less from Ukraine.
4 comments:
"willing or able to protect"?
Count this American out!
Forget about sending tanks. Instead, flood the place with anti-tank weapons.
The last time Germany sent tanks into Ukraine, it did not end well. Tanks are only useful as infantry support, and Ukraine lacks sufficient manpower to muster a competent ground force. UAVs will render those tanks impotent. Russia will eventually win the conflict, just as it did in 1945. Nevertheless, it is clear, as it should have been from the outset, that this was another needless war; one that should have been negotiated away before it started. It may be that too much blood has been spilled to negotiate an acceptable end to it now, and Ukraine may be destroyed as a national entity before things die down. Every bit of this may be laid at the feet of the neocon, globalist cabal that rules in the State Department and Pentagon, all of whom were placed in positions of power by the Bush family, the Clintons and most recently, the faux-American who calls himself Obama.
If the Russians were smart they would concentrate on destroying those tanks at any costs. Because the MSM will report that and it will make the U.S. and their military look bad to the world powers. This is an opportunity for Russia, only time will tell if they realize that.
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