Biden's Failure to Deter

I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed, with chagrin, but, coupled with its bombing campaign and its tough talk, the Biden administration continues to pepper its policy pronouncements with the solemn declaration that it does not want to provoke a larger conflict with Iran.

Until now, and until the deaths of three soldiers got their attention, Joe Biden and his satraps seemed to be especially proud of a policy that they summarized with one word: Don’t.

Obviously, the mullahs found this especially amusing. They paid it no heed. They saw it as a sign of weakness, not a signal of strength. It did not deter them from funding and arming their proxies across the Middle East. One may question whether they were behind the Hamas attack on Israel, but they were surely behind the dozens of attacks on American bases in the region. Through their Houthi proxies they managed to curtail international shipping through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

As you know the tough guys in the Biden administration finally decided to strike back at the Houthis, but, for now, this has not opened up shipping channels. Major shipping firms are sending cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, a vote against the Biden administration.

As for the other Bidenesque admonition, to the effect that, the President says, if anyone harms an American, we will respond… the truth is, Iranian proxies have harmed large numbers of Americans over the past six months and we barely responded. 

Still, the administration continues to project weakness toward Iran. It continues to show that it is afraid of Iran. It fails to deter Iran and its proxies in any serious way. And it makes a public spectacle of its aversion to risk.

One will mention here, if only in passing, that one of the two sexes is especially averse to risk. An administration that prides itself on not being overly sexist has become feminized to the point where it refuses to take risks-- especially in relation to Iran. 

Deterrence… another buzz word for the Biden policy… has not worked. Niall Ferguson explains it in The Daily Mail:

Unfortunately, Biden's foreign policy has been a series of disastrous failures of deterrence. In 2021 he abandoned Afghanistan without a fight to the Taliban, the sponsors of the 9/11 attacks.

In 2022 he failed to deter President Putin from escalating his invasion of Ukraine and offered President Zelensky a plane ticket out in the expectation that Kyiv would swiftly fall. True, the U.S. has since supplied substantial military and financial aid to Ukraine — but only enough not to lose the war; not enough to win it. Now, that U.S. aid has been cut off by Congress.

Last year Biden failed to deter Iran from unleashing its odious proxies against Israel and, inexplicably, he continues to recoil from taking the decisive military action against Iran that is surely warranted — especially now that American bases in Syria are suffering casualties. I am left wondering what additional shoe will drop this year. 

One notes that the bombing campaign Friday night was not decisive action against Iran. It was directed at proxies, but it gave these organizations enough time to remove the more senior commanders from the scene.

For the Biden administration deterrence is a multisyllabic word. Ferguson explained:

A key problem is that, despite having spent half a century in Washington, DC, Joe Biden appears to have learned little or nothing about deterrence — the most ­effective antidote to war.

Rather than make it clear to America's adversaries that they risk destruction if they threaten U.S. allies, Biden frets that any American 'escalation' could lead to… World War III.

Ferguson argues persuasively that Biden is merely reactive, and thus grants to our enemies “escalation dominance.”

Yet it's precisely Biden's susceptibility to Putin's nuclear threats and his baffling appeasement of Iran that are making Armageddon more likely. At every turn, Biden allows America's adversaries to have escalation dominance.

Today, the U.S. and its allies — not least Britain — face an increasingly well organised 'Axis of Ill Will', comprising China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

These authoritarian regimes, despite their ideological differences, are working ever more closely together. Their common aim is to end American predominance.

When it comes to a failure to deter, the Biden record is becoming clear:

Most Europeans and many ­Britons were jubilant when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump four years ago. 'The adults are back in the room,' we were told.

Unfortunately, Biden's foreign policy has been a series of disastrous failures of deterrence. In 2021 he abandoned Afghanistan without a fight to the Taliban, the sponsors of the 9/11 attacks.

In 2022 he failed to deter President Putin from escalating his invasion of Ukraine and offered President Zelensky a plane ticket out in the expectation that Kyiv would swiftly fall. True, the U.S. has since supplied substantial military and financial aid to Ukraine — but only enough not to lose the war; not enough to win it. Now, that U.S. aid has been cut off by Congress.

Last year Biden failed to deter Iran from unleashing its odious proxies against Israel and, inexplicably, he continues to recoil from taking the decisive military action against Iran that is surely warranted — especially now that American bases in Syria are suffering casualties. I am left wondering what additional shoe will drop this year. 

A key problem is that, despite having spent half a century in Washington, DC, Joe Biden appears to have learned little or nothing about deterrence — the most ­effective antidote to war.

Rather than make it clear to America's adversaries that they risk destruction if they threaten U.S. allies, Biden frets that any American 'escalation' could lead to… World War III.

Ferguson reminds us that being well-armed is essential to stopping wars before they start. Winston Churchill criticized his nation for failing to rearm before World War II, and Theodore Roosevelt excoriated the cowardly Woodrow Wilson for failing to rearm once World War I had started.

Today, we have not been disarmed, but we are falling behind in manufacturing armaments. Ferguson explains:

Privately, they mutter about the widening gap between the U.S. and China when it comes to basic manufacturing capacity. The Russian war in Ukraine has given Washington a reminder that in a protracted conventional war you need to be able to crank out 155mm calibre artillery shells — not to mention cheap and disposable drones — in large volumes.

Ferguson is not optimistic. He surveys the passing scene and chalks up the results of Biden administration incompetence. 

We have perhaps 12 months to ensure that Ukraine is not defeated by Putin's orc army; 12 months to ensure that Israel is not laid waste by Iran's most deadly proxy, ­Hezbollah; 12 months to deter China from fulfilling Xi's fantasy of the conquest of Taiwan; 12 months to convince Rocket Man that a war would be the end for his odious dynasty.

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