Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Obama's Re-election Chances, by the Chart

It’s not the polls; it’s the charts.

Many savvy political analysts distrust polls. They prefer to rely on Intrade, the futures trading market. People can go to the site and buy or sell futures on who will win the presidential election, among other things.

As of now President Obama is being quoted with more than a 57% chance of re-election, a positive result for him.

Until you look at the charts, that is. Intrade’s charting service analyzes its futures’ contracts using the same technical analysis tools that you might use to analyze the price movement of pork belly futures or palladium futures.

Jim Pethokoukis just took a look at the Obama re-election chart and discovered that it is entering a bear market. Obama’s reelection chances seem to have topped out. They are now entering what looks to be a serious decline.

Pethokoukis points out that the Obama re-election contract has broken below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, on higher volume. This is a bad sign.

It is also a bad sign that the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average. Technical analysts call that a death cross.

As the term suggests, it is very bad news indeed.

Does this mean that Mitt Romney is a lock?

Not necessarily.

Think of it this way. By now the Obama campaign is surely very, very worried about his re-election prospects.

If you were running the campaign, how would you try to turn the trend around? You would probably replace the hapless Joe Biden on the ticket with, say, Hillary Clinton.

As Yogi Berra used to say, it ain’t over till it’s over.


Nick said...

Will Americans receive it as desperate though? Besides his gay marriage flap, Biden does Obama favors by keeping the discussion spotlight away from issues(Biden has done nothing signifigant - he's never been more than a placeholder)and on his own often baffling behavior and odd statements. Selecting Hillary would could make much of the debate about his failed middle east policy. (Or am I putting too much trust in the media to report with integrity?)

I sense team Obama will make the switch too, but the decision has many implications. It would raise the stakes, but would that fire up conservatives more than it would former Hillary supporters?

As of right now, there might as well not be a VP and Obama probably likes it that way. Hillary wouldn't be a lap dog, and might actually try to get him to accomplish things in congress instead of through bureaucratic methods. She'd also probably still be angling for a presidential nomination in 2016, and thus may interfere with his agenda if she knows it will be unpopular with the populace.

There is definite Obama fatigue in this country, will Americans be duped by one more of his political calculations? Hillary may look shiny now, but wouldn't it be great if the Democrats took this gamble and flamed out spectacularly at the voting booth? She isn't very inspiring on the stump and I don't think Americans are too concerned about making another social statement (1st female president) like in 2008. Obama has thrown all his pitches and seems to be gassed. Can he deliver a knuckle-ball? Does he have a choice?

Dennis said...

If Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia are indicative of how Democrats think about Obama then it may even be worse than the charts show. It makes one wonder how many Dems are going to vote for him or just stay home. At some point, and I think we are just starting to see it, the party leadership is going to move away from Obama. It will be in a way that probably will manifest itself in where political capital, et al goes to elect others.
I would like to think that this political suicide by a "thousand cuts," but will wait to see where it all winds up. Obama is fast b coming the Democrat Robert Dole.

katzxy said...

The flat price March through May looks artificial. That's not proof, but it is odd.