Friday, May 3, 2013

Why Republicans Lost

Bemoaning their losses in the last election Republicans have decided that they need to sign on to immigration reform.

You see, they figured out that Obama won the election be attracting a sizable majority of the Hispanic votes. Ergo, they believe that they must appear to be friendlier to Hispanics.

When this thesis is tested, however, it turns out to be wrong.

Byron York ran the numbers on the New York Times calculator and discovered:

What if Romney had won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, the high-water mark for Republicans achieved by George W. Bush in 2004? As it turns out, if Romney had hit that Bush mark, he still would have lost, with 240 electoral votes to 298 for Obama.

York continued:

But what if Romney had been able to reach a mind-blowing 70 percent of the Hispanic vote? Surely that would have meant victory, right? No, it wouldn't. Romney still would have lost, although by the narrowest of electoral margins, 270 to 268. (Under that scenario, Romney would have won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College; he could have racked up huge numbers of Hispanic votes in California, New York and Texas, for example, and not changed the results in those states.)

According to the Times' calculator, Romney would have had to win 73 percent of the Hispanic vote to prevail in 2012. Which suggests that Romney, and Republicans, had bigger problems than Hispanic voters.

The Republicans’ real problem lay in the low turnout of white voters.

I have argued this point in the past, but it is good to have statistical confirmation. York explained:

The most serious of those problems was that Romney was not able to connect with white voters who were so turned off by the campaign that they abandoned the GOP and in many cases stayed away from the polls altogether. Recent reports suggest as many as 5 million white voters simply stayed home on Election Day. If they had voted at the same rate they did in 2004, even with the demographic changes since then, Romney would have won.

Likewise, the white vote is so large that an improvement of 4 points -- going from 60 percent to 64 percent of those whites who did vote -- would have won the race for Romney.

Something to think about while rushing to open the borders.


Lastango said...

"Something to think about while rushing to open the borders."
True. Also something to think about while rushing to nominate the next empty-suit RINO.

It has never been more clear that the GOP is dying. Even eight wasted years and two phony wars under conservative imposter George Bush weren't enough to convince people of that truth. Now, the Democrats have held the presidency despite a disastrous economy, and gained seats in the Senate against overwhelming odds. Those feats are only possible against a decrepit opponent.

The other day, I came across the fruits of attempts by insiders to fill the GOP's leadership vacuum by pimping Jeb Bush. I haven't looked, but $20 sez that somewhere there's a parallel effort to ensure Karl Rove is part of his strategy team. A rotting political party sprouts all sorts of fungus and mushrooms.

Robert Mitchell Jr. said...

Something else to think about is that Republicans did very, very well the last election, as well as showing surprising strength in places which were thought to be permanently Democrat rotten boroughs. Perhaps we should not let an Idiot Savant successes distract us from a winning formula. Especially given how well it worked last time, when Porkbusters gave control of Congress to the Democrats, putting us in the mess we are now......