Will Trump Run in 2024?

Doubtless, the question has been burning up your little gray cells at an alarming rate. I do not yet have a definitive opinion, but Holman Jenkins of the Wall Street Journal does. By his lights, Donald Trump is unlikely to run for president in 2024. Naturally, this contradicts the stories that are all over the media, to the effect that Trump is certain to run.

At the least, we should recognize that as long as Trump leaves the question open, he has a larger megaphone. So, he has an interest in keep everyone guessing. My own suspicion, as of today, is that he will decide not to run.

If you seek more certainty, I do not believe for an instant that Joe Biden will run again. I would be seriously surprised if he makes it through his first term.

As for Jenkins, here is his assessment:

My own estimate is that Mr. Trump can’t afford not to run for president between now and 2024—it’s too lucrative. His business life now appears to consist largely of paying himself for services his companies provide to his own campaign, funded by thousands of small donations and sales of Trump merchandise. And yet a hunger for him to serve again as president, even among his fans, is not conspicuous. I also ask myself: 

Would he be selling his Washington hotel, one of the few ways he successfully synergized his business interests with this political interests during his presidency, if he planned on being president again?

I doubt it. Mr. Trump has likely already decided he will be happy with just picking the next president, which explains the troop of hopefuls outside his door in Mar-a-Lago.

To the extent that anyone can still believe anything we read in the press, yesterday’s news told us that Mrs. Trump, Melania, by name, does not want to have anything to do with another run or another four years in the White House.

Take it as you will.