Competing with China in 5G

If you like  your information raw, that is, uncooked, here’s a post for you. In context, when I present raw information I mean that I am not offering any of my own commentary. Considering how little I know about high technology, and especially 5G, you should feel grateful for this small consideration.

To show the state of play in the ongoing competition-- some would call it a cold war-- between America and China in high tech, I present some date compiled by people who  know their way around high tech. That would be Graham Allison of Harvard and Eric Schmidt, formerly of Google. They wrote a column for the Wall Street Journal this morning.

You might have noticed that AT&T and Verizon are upgrading to 5G technology. You might have noticed that they are announcing the upgrades breathlessly. 

And yet, take a step back, Allison and Schmidt tell us. Their new 5G is not an advance over 4G. Unfortunately, they seem to be more skilled at marketing than at technological advancement:

AT&T’s and Verizon’s new 5G networks are often significantly slower than the 4G networks they replace. America is far behind in almost every dimension of 5G while other nations—including China—race ahead.

America’s average 5G mobile internet speed is roughly 75 megabits per second, which is abysmal. In China’s urban centers 5G phones get average speeds of 300 megabits per second. Though that’s not quite the fastest 5G in the world—South Korea claims that title at over 400 Mbps—it’s still fast enough to download a high-definition movie in two minutes. 

Just in case you were looking for encouragement, you will happily embrace the fact that South Korea is leading China in the 5G race. Either way, America is falling far behind.

So, the authors explain what 5G matters. And they list the other countries that are moving ahead of us in the 5G race. Given that it’s Olympics season, we do not feel too badly for describing it as a race:

Mobile internet speed is a central advancement of 5G, which enables a new domain of breakthrough applications with potent economic and national-security implications. American 5G upload speeds are slower than those of many developed countries, including Israel, Singapore and Canada. In Boston, Chicago and New York City, AT&T’s 5G speeds are at least 10% slower than its 4G; in Washington, Los Angeles and Austin, Texas, Verizon’s 5G speeds are at least 20% slower than the company’s 4G.

The leading company in the 5G rollout is Huawei. You recall that we are currently sanctioning Huawei, for reasons involving defense technology-- and, of course, to support the Uighurs--, but, apparently, this is not slowing down the company’s work around the world. 

Although American sanctions have hurt Huawei, China’s national champion is still the global leader in supplying 5G infrastructure with 30% of the market, while no U.S. firms sell 5G infrastructure abroad. 

Strategically significant countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey have installed Huawei infrastructure and are already using it to deliver 5G services.

So, we are not doing very well in this competition:

Because 5G signals have short wavelengths, reliable service requires proximity to many wireless base stations. China has installed more than one million 5G base stations, while the U.S. has built only 100,000. The American fiber-optic network is also less dense than that of many developed countries like Japan, making it more difficult for mobile operators to deploy these small cell sites.

What are we doing about it? Glad you asked. Our fearless political leaders have proposed something called an Innovation and Competition Act, which means that Congress is going to try to pass a law that is going to allow us to pretend to compete.

The authors shine the light of reason on it:

The Innovation and Competition Act, which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hailed as “the key to preserving America’s position on the world stage as a current and future technological leader in the 21st century,” would authorize $1.5 billion in spending on 5G mobile networks through 2026. China has already spent $50 billion to build out its 5G network and is on track to spend an additional $100 billion on 5G over the next five years.

Dare I say, we are big on talk and big on spin, but small on action.

As for technological innovation, the authors tell us that China is moving ahead of us in the world of tech innovation. I trust that we will all gain solace from the fact that we are moving ahead in diversity, inclusion and equity:

China is also ahead of America in high-tech manufacturing, green energy and many applications of artificial intelligence. On current trajectories, by 2030 it will likely lead the U.S. in the number of semiconductor chips it produces and in applications of biotechnology to defeat diseases like cancer.

Have a nice day.