Is Germany Running out of Gas?

Given that yesterday was a slow news day, we turn our attention to Europe’s energy crisis. As you understand well, now that the Ukraine war is disappearing from public view, we are within our rights to unearth the deep meaning of the news blackout. For now the Ukrainian forces are not doing well. They are losing. The Biden administration management of the war is going down as yet another appalling failure. But, you suspected as much, didn't you?

Free and democratic Europe is showing itself to be something of a paper tiger. Without the backup of the American military, it would just be paper.

Speaking of paper, weaponizing the American dollar might go down as one of the worst decisions in American history. At present, the nations of the East, the nations that are allied with Russia, are working to supplant the dollar as a vehicle for international commerce. We will keep an eye on the situation, but it is certainly dangerous, perhaps even more dangerous than overturning Roe v. Wade.

For the record, see Pepe Escobar's analysis of the decline and fall of the America-centric world. It's yet another story that has been completely ignored-- not only because it makes the Biden administration look bad, but because it is a lot more difficult to understand than female reproductive anatomy.

Anyway, there is little that Europe can do to counter Russian aggression, beyond a sanctions regime that seems to be hurting Europe more than it is hurting Russia. How’s that for irony.

Germany, in particular, led by the enlightened Angela Merkel, made itself dependent on Russian energy supplies. Now that Russia is turning off the spigots, Germany is in trouble. See also the analysis by David Goldman.

Better yet, that nation is led by leftists, even by Green Party members. How are they adapting to the situation? Not very well, as you can imagine.

The Wall Street Journal editorialized about it all two days ago:

In Germany even the energy emergencies are well-organized. So it is that Berlin Thursday moved into the second of three phases in what is meant to be an orderly procedure for managing fuel shortages this winter. They hope.

Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck raised the alert level amid a reduction in natural gas shipments from Russia. Moscow says a mechanical part is stranded in Canada due to Western sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion, but everyone else knows better.

Germany is vulnerable because for years it pursued energy policies that left the economy dependent on Russia for 55% of its natural-gas imports, 34% of its oil, and 26% of its coal before the Ukraine war. These three fuels combined account for more than 75% of Germany’s energy consumption, and Russian natural gas is by far the hardest to replace.

Running out of energy is not good for your political future. As we have remarked, Germany is trying to recommission its coal burning power plants-- the environment be damned. It is not the least irony that the Minister in charge, Robert Habeck hails from the environmentally friendly Green Party.

And yet, it is not as easy as you might imagine to convert natural gas burning systems to coal burning systems. Who knew?

Coal works for electricity generation, but Germany uses most of its natural gas for other things. Gas-fired community heating systems can’t easily be converted to coal. Manufacturers in industries such as steel and chemicals worry their equipment will be destroyed if they lose gas supply even for a short period. Gas rationing is part of Berlin’s emergency plan, but prioritizing among competing users is proving to be an imponderable.

As for nuclear, would you believe that the enlightened Angela Merkel chose to shut down nuclear reactors, in a spasm of environmentalism. She should not have done it, but she did it anyway. This made it easier for Russia to hold Germany hostage over Ukraine. The Journal calls Merkel’s decision a catastrophic error. It was:

Nuclear supplies 6% of Germany’s electricity. That proportion is down from 12% last year because in late 2021 Berlin shut down another three reactors, leaving only three online. The nuclear phase-out imposed by former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2011 counts as one of the worst energy-security mistakes of all time. But for now, keeping the three remaining reactors running past their planned closure at the end of this year could reduce the power gap that needs to be filled by imported coal.

Yet Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Mr. Habeck are resisting. Nuclear power is politically controversial in Germany, especially among the granola-niks in the Green Party. Some politicians are brave enough to call for an extension of nuclear power, notably Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party and state premier of Bavaria Markus Söder of the conservative CSU.

In short, in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is not going to be the only loser. Germany is now losing bigly. Nothing like a little leftist politics to undermine your economy:

Mr. Habeck still seems to believe he can burn only a little more coal and Germany will arrive at a renewable nirvana when wind and solar meet the country’s power needs. The same Mr. Habeck declared immediately after the Ukraine invasion that there would be “no taboos” in Germany’s debate about energy security. Apparently there still is one, however, and it could prove costly for Europe’s largest economy.