Talking Peace in Ukraine

The Biden administration is all-in. It seems to be unwilling to accept anything less than Ukrainian victory over Russia. It has been throwing major money at the problem and has joined Pres. Zelensky in insisting that there will be no compromise.

As you know, China has proposed its own peace plan, plan that the administration has summarily dismissed.

But then, according to the Wall Street Journal, France and Germany are far less sanguine about Ukrainian prospects. These countries have not gone completely public with their doubts, but still, when it appears in the press, you know that something is happening. Moreso since this story has not been reported very widely:

But the public rhetoric masks deepening private doubts among politicians in the U.K., France and Germany that Ukraine will be able to expel the Russians from eastern Ukraine and Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014, and a belief that the West can only help sustain the war effort for so long, especially if the conflict settles into a stalemate, officials from the three countries say.

Whereas we keep hearing about how great the Ukrainians are doing-- and they are certainly doing far better than expected-- European officials do not believe that Ukraine can hold out indefinitely:

“We keep repeating that Russia mustn’t win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official said. “And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea.”

Leaders of France and German told the Ukrainian president that he should start thinking in terms of peace talks:

President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he needed to start considering peace talks with Moscow when the three leaders met in Paris earlier this month, people familiar with the conversation said.

Over dinner at the Élysée Palace, the sumptuous seat of the French presidency, Mr. Macron delivered a more sober message, the people said, telling Mr. Zelensky that even mortal enemies like France and Germany had to make peace after World War II.

And this means that France and Germany are not going all in on weapons deliveries. This means that America is going it alone.

France and Germany have signaled that they won’t be delivering new types of weapons to Ukraine as the fighting continues in the coming weeks. And while Britain is training Ukrainian pilots on jet fighters, officials say this is part of the longer-term objective to deter Russia from future attacks.

So, if you thought that Ukraine was going to defeat Russia, you should think again. While the American administration has been playing international tough guy, the better to revive the moribund Biden presidency, those who are closer to the situation on the ground are looking for a way out of the conflict, a way that will not involve Russian defeat.

It is, dare I say, worth considering.