Thursday, January 18, 2018

The Iranian Regime Won't Go Quietly

Our media has a markedly short attention span. When the press faces news that might make Trump look better than Obama, it runs screaming for the exits… the better to cover up the story and divert attention on to more important matters… like shithole countries.

The media would want us to believe that the protest demonstrations against the Iranian theocracy have all but died down. Such is not the case. They are continuing… only now, the whole world is not watching.

To put it in some perspective, we turn to an opinion piece from the Wall Street Journal. Ray Takeyh explains that the Iranian regime is ultimately doomed—if not today, tomorrow—but that its overthrow will be especially hazardous-- because it has nuclear capacities.

The popular uprisings in Iran make it a sure bet that the Islamic Republic’s government will eventually collapse. That possibility in a nuclear Iran should have many in Washington losing sleep. What will happen to Iran’s centrifuges, enriched uranium, warhead designs and ballistic-missile technologies if the mullahs are toppled? What will happen to Iran’s scientists who are suddenly unemployed? Western governments should prepare.

He continues:

The Islamic Republic is no ordinary dictatorship heading toward the dust bin of history. In 2015 it was effectively granted a license by the U.S. and the other world powers to expand its nuclear program. The deal has not impeded Iran’s efforts to modernize its nuclear apparatus. Under the watchful eye of Ali Akbar Salehi, the MIT-educated head of Iran’s atomic program, Iran continues to enrich uranium, develop advanced centrifuges, test ballistic missiles, and train engineers. The regime, which has continuously lied about its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, is determined to build an industrial-sized uranium-enrichment infrastructure equipped with cutting-edge technology and manned by a capable cadre of scientists.

Two nuclearized nations recently underwent important political transformations. They did it responsibly, perhaps because they did not suffer a violent revolution:

Thanks to the nuclear deal, Iran could be the first country to undergo a violent revolution while in possession of an extensive nuclear network. The world has been lucky that the two nuclear states that collapsed did so peacefully. At the Cold War’s end Mikhail Gorbachev managed to liquidate the Soviet Union while safeguarding its atomic apparatus. In South Africa, the apartheid regime dismantled and destroyed its nuclear capability before handing over power to the majority.

What is different about Iran:

Iran’s mullahs won’t go as quietly as Russia’s commissars and South Africa’s racists. These are men who claim to know the mind of God and have no compunction about shedding blood. The Islamic Republic will surely experience a prolonged period of internal strife, nationwide violence and ethnic separatism as it unwinds its theocratic experiment. In such circumstances, the command-and-control structure of the Iranian nuclear program may break down. Its enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges could go missing. And Iran’s enterprising scientists may find lucrative employment in unsavory places like North Korea and Pakistan.

Today, the administration is trying to deal with the threat posed by North Korea. Tomorrow, it will need to find a way out of Obama’s Iran nuclear deal.

1 comment:

Sam L. said...

I'm reasonably certain the Iranians won't A-bomb the protesters. Or revolutionaries, either. Because the government forces will be within the blast zone.