It’s not the polls; it’s the charts.
Many savvy political analysts distrust polls. They prefer to rely on Intrade, the futures trading market. People can go to the site and buy or sell futures on who will win the presidential election, among other things.
As of now President Obama is being quoted with more than a 57% chance of re-election, a positive result for him.
Until you look at the charts, that is. Intrade’s charting service analyzes its futures’ contracts using the same technical analysis tools that you might use to analyze the price movement of pork belly futures or palladium futures.
Jim Pethokoukis just took a look at the Obama re-election chart and discovered that it is entering a bear market. Obama’s reelection chances seem to have topped out. They are now entering what looks to be a serious decline.
Pethokoukis points out that the Obama re-election contract has broken below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, on higher volume. This is a bad sign.
It is also a bad sign that the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average. Technical analysts call that a death cross.
As the term suggests, it is very bad news indeed.
Does this mean that Mitt Romney is a lock?
Think of it this way. By now the Obama campaign is surely very, very worried about his re-election prospects.
If you were running the campaign, how would you try to turn the trend around? You would probably replace the hapless Joe Biden on the ticket with, say, Hillary Clinton.
As Yogi Berra used to say, it ain’t over till it’s over.