A Clear-Eyed Look at the War in Ukraine

I do not need to tell you, but I have no experience or expertise in military matters. Thus, I will not presume to offer an evaluation of the state of play in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

And yet, the more I see talking heads on television claiming that Russian president Putin is insane and that the brave Ukrainians are winning the war, the more I suspect that they are all either deluded or lying. Besides, social media outlets is carefully curating the news in order to push the narrative that the Ukrainians are willing and that Putin is crazy.

We like to trust the people who are running our own defense establishment, but, of late, aside from the calamity they visited on Afghanistan, they seem most concerned with making our military more diverse and more co-ed. Oh, and going to war against the weather. If you imagine that an adversary, seeing the silliness coming out of the Pentagon, will feel deterred, you are grossly misinformed.

One does not like to say that one does not trust their judgment, but one does not trust their judgment.

So, seeking a contrary opinion, I discovered an analysis by one Bill Roggio, someone who works for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. (via Maggie's Farm) Roggio has a long experience with military matters, and he offered his analysis to The Daily Mail. Why is it that the Daily Mail is willing to go where other media outlets won’t?

Roggio suggests that the prevalent narrative, the one that is being hawked by commentators on the left and the right, and that seems to be underwriting our government’s policy, has it that Putin has lost his mind and that he cannot win out over a vibrant liberal democracy. The other piece of the narrative, one that I will address in a later post, has it that the nations of the world are united in their condemnation of Russian aggression. At the least, we know that, however united Western nations are, the rest of the world is far from supportive of the Ukrainians. Or even of a regime that had been installed by the Obama state department.

So, Roggio opens by suggesting that our sympathies for the Ukrainians have overwhelmed our judgment:

Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.

A more sober analysis shows that Russia may have sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.

The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.

We must be clear-eyed now that the war is underway.

As might be expected, Pentagon leaders have no sense of the reality of the situation. They were not, unfortunately, chosen for their military abilities, but for their acceptance of the ideology of diversity, inclusion and equity. Oh, and for their belief in climate change:

Yet even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement.

Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

Now, what of Putin? Roggio suggests that Putin would have preferred a quick surrender, but that he planned for a larger, more protracted conflict:

Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.

What was the plan for an invasion?

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-scale invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.

Military analysis looks at how far an army has advanced. Thus, Roggio suggests, the offensive is proceeding according to plan.

This is not a sign of a disorganized, poorly assembled, and failed offensive.

The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported by another Russian column, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this column can link up with Russian troops near Kyiv, it will envelop Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and war material needed elsewhere, and cutting off the government from two northern provinces.

As for Putin himself, he has not lost his mind. He is not senile and demented like the leader of our great country. He is a calculating adversary, one who seems to lack the empathy we prize in our own deficient and soft-headed leaders.

Putin appears to want to take Ukraine intact, but will not hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses.

Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary.

Dismissing his decision to invade Ukraine as a form of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's advance on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin's puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Perhaps, Putin miscalculated the extent of Western sanctions. He might have underestimated the vigor of the Ukrainian resistance. And yet, that merely requires him to recalibrate his battle plan. Which army has never had to do the same?

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest.

He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless.

It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one.

Ukrainian troops are putting up a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages.

It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from three different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well as air, naval and armor superiority.

It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone.

Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts.

We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

It would be a welcome improvement over today’s cheerleading for what appears to be a lost cause.