Friday, December 18, 2020

Where Does the Coronavirus Spread?

Speaking of stupid, how about these numbers via Jack Hellner at The American Thinker. (via Maggie’s Farm)

Fearless New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, the Lord High Executioner of the coronavirus, has gotten together with New York Mayor de Blasio and has decided to shut down bars and restaurants.

Is there any evidence that these locales have been responsible for transmitting the virus? Surely, they are less responsible than the nursing homes into which Gov. Cuomo transferred recovering patients-- the better to infect the elderly and the ill.

Anyway, the science is clear. The places that are and have been shut down are not responsible for the spread of the virus. 

Those are statistics from New York which is based on a large sample of 46,000 data points out of around 210,000 COVI cases from September through November:

So let's get this straight: They close down bars and restaurants but only 1.43% of the cases could be traced to them.

They close hair salons from which were attributed 0.14% of cases.

Gyms contributed to 0.06% of cases.

Churches and religious houses which are severely restricted and blamed contributed 0.69%.

Teachers and other school employees 1.5%.

College students 2.02%

Travelers in and out of state 1.6%.

First responders of all sorts, including the military 1%.

Stores, including big ones and small ones 0.61%.

Hospitals and nursing homes: 7.81%.

From which our governing authorities conclude: stay home, do not go out. 

And yet, home is where most people catch the virus.

So where did over 74% of cases occur? Why, in private homes where politicians and bureaucrats say people should stay and be quarantined.

Anyway, Hellner believes that the governors and mayors who are shutting down commerce and the school systems really want to destroy the country, to destroy people’s livelihoods, presumably to make people more dependent on the government. And to ensure that they elect Democrats.

In many ways it’s a bit too conspiratorial for my taste, but still, it is very difficult to dispute. 


jmod46 said...

Here are three guiding principles for politicians:

1) It is important to appear to be "doing something", even if it turns out that by "doing something" you've created terrible problems.

2) Then offer new policies to fix the problems created by #1

3) Claim credit for fixing those problems.

Rinse and repeat as needed.

Sam L. said...

Until the rubes figure it out.

David Foster said...

There's something missing from this analysis: any data on how the use levels of these facilities during the measurement period compares with the normal, pre-covid use levels. For example, if hair salons are only .14% of many more people would be going to hair salons if it weren't for covid fears and restrictions? least 2-3X, I'd guess. And it seems quite likely that the dependence of infections on % people present is more than linear, more people simultaneously in a constrained space increases the infection possibilities for each of them.