Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Suburbia, Here They Come

First, it was the New York Post. Now The New York Times is giving some serious coverage to the exodus out of New York City. If the Times is covering the story, it means that it’s too flagrant to ignore.

The Times reports on number of New Yorkers moving out to the suburbs. As it notes in its headline: “The Demand Is Insane.”

For instance:

Over three days in late July, a three-bedroom house in East Orange, N.J., was listed for sale for $285,000, had 97 showings, received 24 offers and went under contract for 21 percent over that price.

On Long Island, six people made offers on a $499,000 house in Valley Stream without seeing it in person after it was shown on a Facebook Live video. In the Hudson Valley, a nearly three-acre property with a pool listed for $985,000 received four all-cash bids within a day of having 14 showings.

Apparently, the demand is also unprecedented. It’s not déjà vu all over again.

Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City, from New Jersey to Westchester County to Connecticut to Long Island, have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices, a surge that is unlike any in recent memory, according to officials, real estate agents and residents.

In July, there was a 44 percent increase in home sales for the suburban counties surrounding the city when compared with the previous year, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. The increase was 112 percent in Westchester, just north of New York City, and 73 percent in Fairfield County, Conn., just over the state border.

At the same time, the number of properties sold in Manhattan plummeted 56 percent, according to Miller Samuel.

Fortunately, New York’s idiot mayor is on the case. He has just announced that he will not allow restaurants to open for indoor dining until there is a coronavirus vaccine. Thereby, you can kiss hundreds of thousands of jobs and God-knows-how much economic activity good-bye.

As for why people are leaving, the virus is on the list. But, so is crime. Surely, so is the resettling of homeless people in upper class neighborhoods.

For now, many buyers in the suburbs are expressing concern about the health risks of living in densely packed urban neighborhoods. Facing pandemic restrictions, they want room that New York City often cannot provide: a yard for their children to play and an office to work remotely. Many want land, even if it means being farther away from Manhattan.

Some buyers have told brokers they are concerned about reports of rising crime in New York City, real estate agents said. 

The Times downplays the rising crime rate, so you can feel confident that crime is the problem. After all, de Blasio and Cuomo did not merely empty the jails. They have joined with numerous other city prosecutors in refusing to prosecute crime. Criminals have figured out that they can do whatever they please.

Naturally, the exodus out of New York will affect city services. It will also, as noted by numerous people, greatly reduce the city tax base:

The flight out of New York City could inhibit the city’s economic recovery and its ability to maintain quality-of-life services like the police and sanitation, said Maria Doulis, vice president of strategy and operations at the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog.

“What is worrisome is that the high-income earners, particularly those with more than $1 million, provide a substantial amount of resources to the New York City budget,” Ms. Doulis said. “To lose them would really represent a blow to the budget.”

Even Gov. Cuomo noted this problem, weeks ago. The city administration has not quite gotten the message.

And, we know that New Yorkers are not just leaving for the suburbs. As noted in a post two days ago, many are leaving the New York region entirely:

Still, real estate agents across the region say they have been swamped with calls from New Yorkers who are rethinking their desire to stay.

Moving companies have said they cannot keep up with the demand. Metropolis Moving in Brooklyn said the number of quotes for out-of-state moves jumped by more than 200 percent in May and in June compared with those months last year, and by more than 165 percent in July versus a year ago. Most people seeking quotes were moving to the city’s suburbs, he said, though others were moving to areas stretching from Washington, D.C., to Boston.

Optimists think that New York will come roaring back. Increasingly, it seems that they are living an illusion.


Sam L. said...

Oregon? I lived there 33 years. And I say, if you have a Democrat mayor and a Democrat governor, YOU are a two-time loser. It wasn't that bad when I was there.

370H55V said...

I can understand leaving NYC (I did long ago), but I can' see moving to the immediate suburbs, which these days are just as much under blue rule as the city itself.

In addition to that, a suburban homeowner must pay confiscatory property taxes--NJ being the highest of any state in the country, and the Town of Hempstead in Nassau County the highest of any municipality in the country. At least property taxes in NYC are more reasonable, even with city income tax and appalling public schools.

And if that weren't bad enough, only the first $10K of all state and local taxes are deductible. Watch the Dems push for repeal big time to cover their rich constituent base. When the House passed this earlier this year, even AOC voted against it. A stopped clock and all that . . .

Zbignu said...

A few thousand families leave new york and the city can't pay its bills? I thought the rich dont pay their 'fair share'. Seems they pay more than that.

Stuart Schneiderman said...

1% of the people in NYC pay nearly half the taxes... fair share?